Arabs give U.S., Israel benefit of doubt at Annapolis

By Jonathan Wright

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Arab governments held out for weeks before agreeing to go to the Middle East peace conference the United States is organizing in Maryland this week.

But they decided that despite what they see as Washington's commitment to Israel and the gradual erosion of its global influence, the United States offers the only mediation that has even the slightest chance of making a difference.

They were also susceptible to urgent appeals from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who feared that, if other Arabs were absent from Annapolis, Israel and the United States would give him nothing to go home with.

Some Arab leaders also weighed their own close ties with Washington and came to the conclusion it was safer to upset their own people than to upset U.S. President George W. Bush.

Arab commentators have said the main aim of the Annapolis conference is to improve the Bush administration's image and placate conservative Arab governments that have criticized its inactivity on Middle East peace.

They note that the conference idea began as a way to strengthen Abbas's hand against the Islamist movement Hamas, which had just defeated Abbas's forces in Gaza and taken control of the territory.

Israel and the United States have also emphasized the importance of bringing in Arab governments that do not have relations with Israel, raising suspicions that the real aim is to promote "normalization" while giving nothing in return.

But Arab officials think they have enough assurances from the United States and Israel to make it worthwhile to attend, according to analysts in close touch with the governments.

"The Americans went a long way in meeting some demands and giving a timetable for implementing any agreement. The Americans did exercise a lot of pressure," said Jihad al-Khazen, Lebanese former editor of the London newspaper al-Hayat.

Ezzedin Choukri, director of the International Crisis Group's program on Arab-Israeli peace, said the Saudis had held out for evidence that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was serious about making peace and was willing to freeze Israeli settlement building in the West Bank.

"They got assurances that Olmert will commit in Annapolis to implementing Israel's obligation under the road map, which includes the settlement freeze," he told Reuters.

LOYALTY TO WASHINGTON

In public, Olmert has repeated a promise not to build new settlements but has not taken the further step of freezing expansion work on existing settlements.

Syria said last week the United States had agreed to meet its main demand for attending -- putting the Golan Heights on the agenda for the conference, which will deal mainly with the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.

Damascus has not yet formally accepted the invitation but the analysts said it was clear the Syrians would be going.