FACTBOX-Israel's options on Gaza

Sat Mar 1, 2008 7:38am EST
 
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(Reuters) - Israel killed 33 Palestinians on Saturday in one of its deepest and deadliest incursions into the Gaza Strip since pulling out in 2005, stoking fears of a broader conflict that could derail renewed U.S.-backed peace talks.

Here are some of the choices Israeli leaders face:

ALL-OUT INVASION:

PROS:

-- The best-equipped army in the Middle East, with total control of the air, could overwhelm Hamas guerrillas and their allies, who may number around 35,000.

-- It might quiet critics who demand action after a rocket killed an Israeli near the border town of Sderot on Wednesday and longer-range Katyushas hit the bigger city of Ashkelon.

CONS:

-- Despite a massive superiority in firepower, taking and holding the urban jungle of Gaza's Palestinian refugee camps would certainly cost Israeli lives, even if lessons have been learned from the 2006 Lebanon war against Hezbollah, when 114 Israeli troops were killed in a month of fighting. Hamas might also kill Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, whom it captured in 2006.

- However angry Israelis are at rockets fired from Gaza, these have killed three only Israelis in the past year. The outcry over the Lebanon war has made Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his team wary of public reaction to Israeli casualties.

-- Heavy fighting would cause casualties among Gaza's 1.5 million civilians, half of whom are children. In Lebanon, 900 civilians died compared to 300 Hezbollah fighters. Israel risks condemnation abroad, and possibly sanctions.

-- Though Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas shuns Hamas, a bloodbath in Gaza would put Abbas under huge domestic pressure to break off new, U.S.-sponsored peace negotiations.

-- Retaking Gaza would leave the problem of whether Israel would resume the occupation it ended in 2005 after 38 years. It has vowed not to. But withdrawing after an invasion might see more hostilities from even more embittered Gazans. There has been talk of foreign peacekeepers, as in Lebanon -- but few nations have much appetite for taking on Gaza's problems.

LIMITED FORCE:

PROS:

-- Some Israeli officials speak of a swift move into parts of the 45 km (30-mile) long strip of coast, notably into the relatively thinly populated "Philadelphi Corridor" in the south that would cut Hamas off from supply tunnels from Egypt and into northern areas from which rockets are hitting Israel.

-- Such a move, officials say, could be accompanied by air strikes and commando operations to kill the Hamas leadership and let Abbas's Fatah loyalists take control of the enclave.  Continued...

 
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