"Failed state" Pakistan raises nuclear threat

By Luke Baker -Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - Security experts fear Pakistan's nuclear materials could fall into the hands of Islamic militants as the country's instability deepens in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination.

In early 2005, a joint security assessment by the CIA and the U.S. National Intelligence Council predicted Pakistan would become "a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanization" by 2015.

Following Bhutto's death in Rawalpindi on Thursday, some experts believe the timeframe on that assessment may now have been brought forward, with political upheaval pitching Pakistan, a nuclear-armed power since 1998, towards breakdown.

"It's a very, very valid risk," said M.J. Gohel, the head of the Asia-Pacific Foundation, a London-based security and intelligence think-tank, describing the possibility that parts of Pakistan's nuclear technology could fall into militant hands.

"It's only a matter of time before al Qaeda or somebody sympathetic to them gets hold of nuclear weapons, and if al Qaeda or its sympathizers are to get hold of them, then Pakistan is at this point the weakest link in the chain.

"It is the most unstable country in the world that has nuclear weapons. Iran may want nuclear weapons, but it doesn't have them today. Pakistan does."

Despite the concerns frequently raised by nuclear experts, especially since the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, Washington believes Pakistan's arsenal remains secure.

U.S. military and defense officials say the weapons are safely under the control of the Pakistani military, and the Pentagon on Friday counseled calm despite recent turmoil.