FACTBOX: Challenges facing Russia's next president

Thu Feb 28, 2008 1:48pm EST
 
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(Reuters) - Russia votes on Sunday in a presidential election that is almost certain to hand victory to Dmitry Medvedev, the man outgoing President Vladimir Putin has endorsed to replace him.

Though Russia's economy is booming, economists warn the next president will face major challenges if he is to sustain growth. Here are some of the biggest challenges:

INFLATION

The government is struggling to keep inflation under control. Last year it was 11.9 percent, against an official target of 8 percent. To combat it, the government has allowed the rouble to appreciate, an instrument that has not proved fully effective. It also hurts domestic industry because it makes their exports less competitive.

"If inflation were to accelerate much more beyond current levels then that would lead to a loss of public faith and that could back-end into a stability crisis inside the Kremlin," said Chris Weafer, chief strategist with Uralsib bank.

A potentially divisive debate on how to tackle inflation lies ahead. Some in the government want to float the rouble, which would allow the central bank to set its own interest rates and use these to control inflation. Opponents in the government say that would forfeit currency stability, one of the main achievements of Putin's eight years in office.

OIL DEPENDENCY

Russia's budget is dependant on revenues from oil and gas exports. That leaves the country vulnerable to a fall in energy prices that could result from a global economic slowdown.

"If it (the oil price) were to fall back to the same price as last year ... then the budget is looking at a deficit of $60 billion," said Weafer. Medvedev has named diversifying Russia's economy away from oil and gas as a key priority.  Continued...

 

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