Georgia war boosts Medvedev's status

By Oleg Shchedrov - Analysis

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's conflict with Georgia has helped President Dmitry Medvedev emerge from the shadow of his mentor Vladimir Putin by letting the soft-spoken lawyer assume the mantle of wartime leader.

Medvedev's problem now is that the international isolation looming over Russia for sending troops and tanks into Georgia could drown out his liberal agenda of opening up the economy to the outside world, analysts say.

When he was elected six months ago, some Kremlin watchers predicted he would be the puppet of Putin, the man who anointed Medvedev as his successor and stayed on as a powerful prime minister.

The war, in which Russia crushed an attempt by Georgia's military to retake the breakaway South Ossetia region and sent its troops deep into Georgia, has reshaped the domestic political landscape.

Throughout the crisis, Medvedev appeared as a confident leader who made the key decisions, from ordering the invasion to signing a ceasefire deal.

In a live television address announcing the recognition of Georgia's two breakaway regions as independent states, he spoke in clipped sentences and looked presidential beneath a gold-coloured two-headed eagle, Russia's national symbol.

"The conflict helped Medvedev, who acted like a president and a commander-in-chief, to consolidate more power," said independent analyst Stanislav Belkovsky.

"It was remarkable how in the course of the conflict Medvedev started speaking in the first person, replacing his vague expressions like 'it would be useful' with the confident 'I think' and 'I decided'," he said.

GOOD COP, BAD COP

Medvedev's double act with Putin -- which some observers predicted would implode when the first crisis hit -- not only held up but proved to be effective by allowing them to perform a diplomatic "good cop, bad cop" routine.

Medvedev cautiously avoided personal attacks on Russia's harshest critic, the United States. Putin, in contrast, accused the U.S. administration of stoking the conflict to help the Republican candidate in the race for the White House.

"They worked as a team in which one partner speaks out while another partner, who will have to establish personal ties with the U.S. leaders, sticks to diplomatic language," said Alexei Makarkin, an analyst from the Centre for Political Technologies, a Moscow think tank.

"Putin remains the stronger figure in the tandem, but Medvedev has emerged as a true president," he said. "There are chances now that their roles in the tandem will soon become equal."

ISOLATIONISM

The question is whether Medvedev now has enough clout to push through his reform agenda in the face of growing hawkish sentiment.