Saudi smile likely for Bush on oil plea, not more

By Tabassum Zakaria - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush will likely receive little more than a smile and handshake when he asks Saudi Arabia to help lower oil prices during a visit to Riyadh this week to commemorate 75 years of a relationship that has developed fissures in the last decade.

Oil prices keep climbing to record highs, threatening to push the U.S. economy into recession, and economic issues are a top concern for American voters during this presidential election year when they will choose a successor to Bush.

Bush is scheduled to meet Saudi King Abdullah at his private farm on Friday to mark the 75th anniversary of the formal establishment of U.S.-Saudi relations.

His visit to Riyadh will follow a stop in Israel to mark the 60th anniversary of the Jewish state's creation, and precedes a stop in Egypt for talks with Palestinian leaders.

Oil, Iraq, Iran and Palestinian-Israeli peacemaking are high on the agenda as Bush and King Abdullah try to smooth U.S.-Saudi relations that deteriorated in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks and the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

Saudi Arabia and the United States both view al Qaeda as a threat. But 15 of the 19 September 11 hijackers were of Saudi origin, as is al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, which tarnished Saudi Arabia's image in the eyes of the American public.

The invasion of Iraq over the strong opposition of Saudi Arabia further exacerbated tensions and made the United States unpopular with the Saudi public.

"We have an odd disconnect here. We have a recognition on the part of the governments in both countries that this is a very important relationship," said Chas Freeman, president of the Middle East Policy Council.

"But in both cases, the public is extremely negative. Saudi Arabia has been successfully vilified in American politics, and the United States is now extraordinarily unpopular in Saudi Arabia," said Freeman, a former U.S. ambassador to Riyadh.

White House national security adviser Stephen Hadley said the U.S.-Saudi relationship was in "pretty good shape" despite stresses over the Iraq war.

The United States wants Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries to improve their relation with Iraq. "We would like to see them offering greater diplomatic support for Iraq, embracing Iraq as a part of the Arab family. They have not gone as far as we would like on that score," Hadley said.

IRAN ASCENDANCY

The United States and Saudi Arabia both want to keep growing Iranian influence in the region at bay.

"Most Saudis believe that that ascendancy in the region has come about as a result of American policy, that is the United States occupies Iraq militarily, but Iran occupies it politically," Freeman said.

Iraq has a Shi'ite-led government, and Iran is ruled by the same sect of Islam, while rulers of Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries are Sunni.