U.S. risks deepening role in Iraqi Shi'ite feud

By David Morgan - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration's support for the Iraqi government crackdown on Shi'ite militias risks drawing the United States into a dangerous confrontation between rival Shi'ite sects, analysts warn.

Washington has billed the security operation launched last month by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki as a defining battle for Iraq between the rule of law and Iranian-backed outlaw militias dubbed by U.S. officials as "special groups" that thrive as criminal syndicates.

But analysts worry Maliki is using the crackdown to undermine his chief Shi'ite political rival, cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who threatened open war unless the crackdown comes to an end.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice voiced support for the Maliki crackdown and efforts to isolate Sadr on Sunday as rockets blasted the fortified Green Zone compound in Baghdad.

But analysts warn that Iraq could turn more violent with the approach of provincial elections in October.

"The great uncertainty is just how much this Shi'ite power struggle is going to be violent and how much will end up with elements the U.S. can work with," said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group warned in November that the Bush administration's one-sided courtship of key Maliki supporter, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, could create the foundations for endemic intra-Shi'ite strife by isolating Sadr.

PLAYING WITH FIRE

Some analysts now say recent violence could jeopardize the fragile patchwork of U.S.-brokered cease-fire agreements that had helped reduce violence in Iraq until the recent flare-up.

"If the Maliki government is pursuing partisan domestic political advantage by whacking some cease-fire participants, then this is a huge threat to stability in Iraq," said Stephen Biddle of the Council on Foreign Relations.

"Even if there's no element to partisan politics in this, Maliki's still playing with fire because his actions may not get interpreted as those of a disinterested nationalist."

The immediate danger would be an unraveling of the cease-fire Sadr imposed on his own followers, a danger that appeared to increase over the weekend when the cleric threatened open war against the Maliki crackdown.

But even former Sunni insurgents, whose alliance with the United States helped drive al Qaeda in Iraq militants from the once restive Anbar province, could be drawn into the fray -- especially if the Mehdi Army resumed activities in mixed Shi'ite-Sunnis areas, analysts believe.

"A resumption of Mehdi Army sectarian operations could lead to a general unraveling of cease-fires," said Robert Malley of the International Crisis Group.

Biddle said the main danger would be for militias of any stripe to conclude their cease-fire agreements with the U.S. military did not protect them from Iraqi government incursion.