In Hollywood, bad times may be good news for TV biz

By Paul Thomasch - Analysis

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - All the worries about a lousy housing market, sky-high gasoline prices and job losses should make this a natural time for Americans to grab the remote and seek solace in front of the television set.

As TV executives prepare for the 2008-09 broadcast season, they can only hope audiences will be looking for an extra dose of escapism.

After all, the industry is coming off a rocky year, marred by a 14-week writers strike, a lack of new breakout hits and the proliferation of digital video recorders that have rendered the old notion of "appointment television" virtually obsolete.

All that was reflected in another season of year-to-year ratings declines as more viewers seemed to gravitate toward cable TV, YouTube and video games.

"There's no doubt that this was a challenging year," Dawn Ostroff, the fledgling CW network's entertainment president, recently told a gathering of TV writers and critics.

But Ostroff is betting that her network's 2008-09 lineup -- including bubble gum fare like "Gossip Girl" and "One Tree Hill" -- will resonate with those who want to lose themselves for an hour or two in a good old-fashioned melodrama.

"It's interesting because when you look at when shows like this were very popular, 'Dynasty' and 'Dallas' back in the day, it was when there were economic hard times," she said, referring to two programs popular in the 1980s.

"A lot of times when the country goes through times like these, where we're in what is perceived by many people as a recession, having entertainment be escapist is what our viewers look for," Ostroff added.

SPORTS MAY SCORE

Sports also appear to be a shelter from the economic storm, at least judging from the big audiences that tuned into the Super Bowl, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open golf tournament.

A clear test case for the TV industry will be the Olympic Games starting next month, carried exclusively in the United States by NBC Universal. Across its broadcast, cable TV and online outlets, NBC Universal is planning a record 3,600 hours of coverage of the games, though about a third of that will be streamed over the Internet.

"I think the country is really ready for this," NBC Universal Sports Chairman Dick Ebersol told TV writers. "It isn't exactly a joyful time; $4 gasoline, people who can't afford vacations; wild prices on food. Audiences are really looking for something to cheer."

The TV industry is hardly in the clear. U.S. audiences have numerous options when it comes to escapism, from DVDs and movies to video games and the Web.

What's more, the TV industry is still recovering from the screenwriters' strike that began in late 2007 and ended in February. Labor jitters persist over stalemated contract talks between actors and the studios, but the two sides are expected to reach a deal without another strike.

One lingering result of the walkout by screenwriters was a shorter TV development season, so networks reduced the number of series pilots they ordered to save time and money. That could be risky, particularly given the pressure executives are under to find new hit shows.