Poll says Chavez loses Venezuela referendum lead

By Enrique Andres Pretel

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has lost his lead eight days before a referendum on ending his term limit, an independent pollster said on Saturday, in a swing in voter sentiment against the Cuba ally.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters oppose Chavez's proposed raft of constitutional changes to expand his powers, compared with 39 percent in favor, a survey by respected pollster Datanalisis showed.

Just weeks ago, Chavez had a 10-point lead for his proposed changes in the OPEC nation that must be approved in a referendum, the polling company said.

Despite the swing, company head Luis Vicente Leon said he did not rule out a comeback by the popular president.

Chavez has trounced the opposition at the polls on average once a year and can deploy a huge state-backed machinery to get out the vote, Leon said.

Still, the survey was the latest blow to Chavez. He has suffered a series of defections over his plan, including an ex-defense minister who had restored him to power after a brief 2002 putsch but who called Chavez's reforms a new "coup."

"The debate over voting 'yes' or 'no' has burst into the very heart of Chavez's support base," Leon said in an interview. "We can see moderate Chavez backers ready to vote 'no' even though they like him."

Saturday's poll was the first Datanalisis survey in the campaign to project Chavez could lose. It also contrasted with the general trend of most other surveys taken earlier this month that have shown Chavez winning amid low turnout and despite widespread skepticism of his proposal.