China's Hu stronger, but no strongman

By Benjamin Kang Lim - Analysis

BEIJING (Reuters) - Almost five years in power, Chinese President Hu Jintao has grown in strength but a failed attempt to retire the chief official bodyguard illustrates a behind-the-scenes struggle as he seeks to consolidate power.

At 68, General You Xigui was past the compulsory retirement age, but long-time patron Jiang Zemin used his residual influence as the previous party chief to force Hu to keep You on as director of the Communist Party's Bodyguards Bureau.

"Jiang lost his temper ... He said the 17th congress hasn't even started and asked what Hu was up to," one source with ties to the leadership told Reuters.

Jiang has maintained a special bond with You, impressed with his loyalty. The spat was another indication of the limits to Hu's influence, even though he has appeared to have grown in confidence in the run-up to the autumn congress where he will try to pack the party's all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee with his men.

Hu promoted three military officers to full general rank this month and appointed new commanders for at least three of the country's seven military regions.

Since last year, Hu has promoted a number of political allies to provincial governor or party boss.

"Hu is the biggest (single) shareholder in the Standing Committee. He is eyeing to become the majority shareholder at the 17th congress," said political commentator Liang Kezhi.

Hu, 64, replaced Jiang, 80, as party chief in 2002, state president in 2003 and military chief in 2004, completing China's first smooth generational leadership change since the 1949 Communist revolution.

Hu, the country's fourth-generation leader after Mao, Deng and Jiang, is the first among equals in the Standing Committee but his power is not absolute and he is expected to share power at the congress and possibly accommodate Jiang's wishes.

"Hu still needs to take into consideration what Jiang thinks," said a second source with leadership ties.

Whether Hu will be able to name an ally as his fifth-generation successor in the Standing Committee, the top echelon of power, will be a barometer of how much clout Hu has.

Another focus of the congress will be whether Vice President Zeng Qinghong, ranked fifth in the Standing Committee but who punches above his political weight, retires due to age limits.

Hu toppled Shanghai party boss Chen Liangyu last September, but there was no swift prosecution that would have signaled Hu's dominance over the city, Jiang's political bailiwick.

"Hu Jintao is unable to take out the Shanghai Gang and vice versa," said a political scientist who requested anonymity, referring to the faction led by Jiang and Zeng.

"There is infighting, but it is not fatal."