North Korea nuclear deal comes wrapped in ambiguity

By Chris Buckley - Analysis

BEIJING (Reuters) - A disarmament pact sealed this week takes North Korea a step closer to abandoning its nuclear arms ambitions, and yet it bears potentially deal-breaking ambiguities that negotiators have until now held at bay.

One year after Pyongyang drew international censure with its first nuclear test, it is basking in unfamiliar diplomatic warmth after hosting a summit with South Korea and accepting a disarmament deadline hammered out at six-party talks in Beijing.

Under the deal announced by talks host China on Wednesday, Pyongyang will "disable" three main facilities at its Yongbyon nuclear complex and declare all nuclear activities by December 31 -- potentially momentous steps towards full atomic dismantlement.

But what the negotiators have previously called a "road-map" turns out to be a 700-word sketch as telling for what it leaves unclear as for what it spells out.

Uncertainties over disablement and declaration steps and the fate of North Korea's demands for light-water nuclear reactors -- originally promised in a 1994 agreement with the Clinton administration -- could delay, damage and even derail efforts to fully end Pyongyang's nuclear arms program, analysts said.

"There is a reason why we have the saying 'the devil is in the details'. And with the North Koreans, that saying goes in spades," said Joel Wit of Columbia University, who formerly worked in the U.S. State Department negotiating with North Korea.

"I would say it's a baby step towards denuclearization. Useful and certainly better than what we had before but extremely limited," he said.

FORTRESS STATE

For now, even long-time foe Washington has cast aside criticism of communist North Korea to hail hopes of bringing the isolated fortress state into the international fold.

The deal builds on a February agreement offering energy-famished Pyongyang one million metric tons of heavy fuel oil or equivalent aid in return for disabling Yongbyon and for disclosing all other nuclear activities.

Just a year ago, the future of the six-party talks was clouded. The fitful discussions between North and South Korea, the United States, China, Russia and Japan had meandered since August 2003 without a breakthrough.

But Pyongyang's test blast on October 9 last year focused diplomatic energies and the U.S. negotiator, Christopher Hill, opened substantive two-way talks with North Korea that laid the groundwork for the February agreement.

Yet negotiating with North Korea -- secretive and wary of the West after decades of confrontation -- has never been easy, and key pieces of the disarmament puzzle remain in delicate diplomatic ambiguity.

"He may think he is gradually boxing them in, but being vague can also be dangerous," said Wit.

Among the issues left unclear are just how the Yongbyon facilities will be "disabled" -- crippled so North Korea would find it difficult to restart them.