FACTBOX: North Korean options for nuclear plant

By Jon Herskovitz (Reuters) - North Korea has removed U.N. nuclear watchdog monitors, seals and cameras from its nuclear complex that makes weapons-grade plutonium and aims to reintroduce nuclear material there in a week, officials said on Wednesday. The North froze operations and in November 2007 started to take apart its Soviet-era Yongbyon nuclear complex under a disarmament-for-aid deal it reached with five global powers. Following are some scenarios presented by analysts of what might take place in the sputtering disarmament talks: * SLOW SIMMER - North Korea could make a series of small steps to rebuild its nuclear plant, hoping to squeeze out concessions. Disablement steps that were part of the deal have mostly been completed. Experts said it would take North Korea at least a year to restore Yongbyon and the secretive state has not taken any serious steps yet toward resuming operations there. Earlier this month, U.S. and South Korean officials said leader Kim Jong-il might have suffered a stroke. If Kim suffered a serious health setback, those helping in the leadership might opt for gradual steps that can be easily decided by consensus. The longer the North delays the process, the more time it has to miniaturize a nuclear weapon so it can be mounted on a missile and work on a second route for developing atomic arms by enriching uranium for weapons. * ESCALATION - Some of the North's top priorities would be to separate plutonium from irradiated fuel rods at the site, which could yield it enough fissile material for one nuclear bomb, and reload its reactor with a fresh batch of fuel. Experts have said trade sanctions placed on the North might make it difficult for Pyongyang to acquire sensitive equipment and parts of the aging nuclear complex could be beyond repair. The North could be keeping an eye on U.S. politics as it works to restore Yongbyon. It could aim to reverse several of the disablement steps by the time a new president takes office, which could then increase its bargaining leverage. "At the minimum they want attention and at the maximum, they want to escalate to get satisfaction from Washington or get a better deal from the next administration," said Peter Beck, a specialist in Korean affairs who teaches at American University in Washington. Energy-starved North Korea would lose out on the 1 million tonnes of heavy fuel oil, or aid of similar value, pledged to it for progress it has already made in disablement. It has received part of the aid but the majority has not been delivered. * DEFIANCE - North Korea drops out of any disarmament regime and works to fully rebuild its nuclear arms program. The two biggest challenges for North Korea are perfecting its bomb design and working on a delivery mechanism. The North's first nuclear test in October 2006 did not produce a massive explosion, indicating possible design problems, experts say. The North may work on a new design and conduct another nuclear test. North Korea can take what experts see as an experimental program to enrich uranium into full-scale operation. The North has ample supplies of natural uranium and can enrich uranium away from the prying eyes of spy satellites. * BOTTOM LINE - Analysts do not see North Korea ever giving away its nuclear arms program, which earns the impoverished country a seat at the table with global powers and can be used to extract concessions that benefit its moribund economy. ʘ