Win or lose, Palin to be a political force

By Ed Stoddard - Analysis

DALLAS (Reuters) - Sarah Palin has emerged as the new darling of social conservatives, and this political capital could make her an influential vice president -- or propel her as a candidate for the prime spot in 2012 -- if John McCain loses to Democrat Barack Obama on Tuesday.

But even within Republican circles the moose-hunting Alaska governor is a polarizing figure who highlights her party's divisions between fiscal conservatives and conservative Christians united by their strident opposition to abortion and gay rights.

"If they do in fact lose on Tuesday she becomes one of the central figures for 2012," said Matthew Wilson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

"Clearly, Palin is a star with the social conservatives but many of the country-club Republicans just find her completely unpalatable," he said.

The 44-year-old mother of five has become the northern light that has electrified the Republican Party's conservative evangelical base -- its most reliable voting bloc.

She has won conservative hearts and minds on many fronts: she is a devout evangelical; she chose to have a child even when she knew through prenatal tests he would have Down syndrome; she is a populist; and she knows how to use a gun.

Polls show the McCain/Palin ticket currently losing ground with many demographic groups but still retaining the support of around two out of three white evangelical Protestants.

McCain, who has broken with this wing of the party on many key issues including his support for stem cell research and his failure to back a federal amendment to ban gay marriage, could not garner this level of evangelical support without Palin, analysts say.

A Pew Research Center poll conducted from October 23 to 26 found 93 percent of registered voters that categorize themselves as conservative Republicans backed McCain.

A number of influential conservative Christians including Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention have pegged Palin as the rising star of the Republican Party's social conservative wing.

If McCain loses on Tuesday, this puts her near or at the front of the Republican pack for 2012.

"I think that she will be a major contender ... and she will certainly be in the running," said Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, an influential conservative lobby group with strong evangelical ties.

POLARIZING

But the same qualities that endear her to this wing of the Republican Party repel some moderates within its ranks.

Concerns about the Palin pick have been mentioned by high profile Republicans who defected to Obama, such as Kenneth Adelman, a hawkish aide to former President Ronald Reagan, and retired U.S. Gen Colin Powell, a former secretary of state under President George W. Bush.