Iranian hardliners poised for revenge on dissenters

By Alistair Lyon, Special Correspondent - Analysis

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Iran's hardline rulers are set to punish reformists linked to the boldest anti-government protests since the 1979 Islamic revolution, despite the damage this might inflict on the system's legitimacy and relations with the West.

Now that security forces have quelled the street turmoil that erupted after a disputed June 12 presidential election, the leadership is preparing to put on trial some of the hundreds of political activists and opinion-makers detained since the vote.

Hints abound that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, shocked by the furor over President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election in a vote critics say was rigged, is striking back.

The editor of hardline Kayhan daily urged Saturday that losing candidate Mirhossein Mousavi and reformist ex-President Mohammad Khatami be tried for their "terrible crimes."

Friday, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, head of the Guardian Council that certified the election, said British embassy local staffers accused of inciting unrest had confessed and would face trial. They include the mission's chief political analyst.

The hardline Javan newspaper said 100 lawmakers had asked the judiciary to prosecute the leaders of "post-election riots," citing Mousavi and another defeated candidate, Mehdi Karoubi.

Further stifling of dissent risks discrediting "republican" institutions that have in the past cloaked Iran's clerical rulers with a degree of popular legitimacy, analysts said.

"Once the attempt to steal the elections didn't go as planned, Ahmadinejad opted for the politics of elimination," said Trita Parsi, president of the Washington-based National Iranian American Council. "That too will fail, I believe.

"The violence and brutality shown by the government will not be forgotten. It came at the expense of whatever legitimacy the government had left," he said. "Khamenei and Ahmadinejad can only rule by force now. Their reliance on the security apparatus is greater now than ever before."

Officials say the poll was the healthiest in 30 years and its real winners were the 40 million Iranians who voted. They cast those who cried foul as subversives seeking a "velvet revolution" on behalf of malevolent Western powers.

CONSENSUS SYSTEM AT PERIL

Alireza Nader, a RAND Corporation analyst, said Iran seemed to be moving toward a more militarized system of government, in which the elite Revolutionary Guard would play a bigger role.

"The consensus-driven system of decision-making in Iran appears to be in jeopardy," he said, adding that institutions such as the Majles (parliament) might play an even smaller role.

Nader said Khamenei, who urged all Iranians to rally behind Ahmadinejad after the election, had further sullied his image as a neutral arbiter above the political fray, even though he had already sided with the ultra-conservatives for several years.

"Khamenei may have also damaged his credibility among the traditional clergy by behaving in such a singular manner."