Washington leak machine weighs on Afghan review

By Sue Pleming - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's review of war strategy in Afghanistan has seen a steady supply of leaks that have portrayed a divided administration riven by factions trying to influence the decision.

Leaks have framed the debate between those who want to send tens of thousands more U.S. troops to Afghanistan and those who oppose such an escalation.

"One of the dark aspects of the American policy process is the pattern of calculated leaks of classified material and in this case, obviously to affect a presidential decision," said Ryan Crocker, former U.S. ambassador to Iraq and to Pakistan.

It began in September when Army General Stanley McChrystal's classified report that the situation in Afghanistan was deteriorating was leaked, which put pressure on Obama to agree to McChrystal's request for more troops.

Last week, classified cables from the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, Karl Eikenberry, who expressed deep reservations about sending more troops until Afghan President Hamid Karzai cracks down on corruption, also landed in the press.

The security breech came at a time when it was fairly well established that Obama planned to send more troops; the question is how many. A decision is expected to be announced in the coming weeks.

Political analysts said the longer Obama takes to decide and the more leaks emerge to underline dissent within his administration, the greater the risk to his credibility.

"It erodes his standing as a strong president," said New York University analyst Paul Light.

Obama ran a disciplined campaign for the White House and successfully kept his team on message. Not so now, as his staff tries to tame chatter across the Pentagon, State Department and White House.

"I don't know that it shifts opinion, but rather it creates the impression that the administration is confused and over-analyzing and can't come to a decision," Light said.

The White House has fought back against claims that Obama is "dithering", saying he did not want to repeat President George W. Bush's rush to invade Iraq.

Many analysts say some leaks have come from Pentagon officials pushing for troop increases at the higher end of the range Obama is considering -- about 40,000.

"SHUT UP"

On a trip to Wisconsin last week, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he was "appalled" at the number of leaks on the Afghan policy debate and the perpetrators should "shut up."

Others suspect sources in the White House or State Department for leaking Eikenberry's classified memos.