BERLIN Oct 31 The U-S.-led shale boom will have
a lasting impact on global energy prices and push crude oil
prices down to $80 a barrel, according to an analysis by
Germany's BND intelligence agency obtained by Reuters on
The BND said the U.S. shale boom would have a greater impact
on global markets than it predicted in a previous analysis
earlier this year.
"The effects from the unconventional production of oil and
natural gas in the United States will be pronounced over the
next 10 to 20 years," the report said.
It added that it now expects global oil prices to sink
substantially, which will cause considerable problems for gas
and oil producers such as Russia and Libya and trigger changes
in the Middle East.
The report said such changes would cause the biggest risks
for Iran, Libya, Venezuela and Yemen, because the governments in
these producer countries were banking on high prices.
It said it is possible crude oil prices will fall lastingly
to about $80 per barrel.
A Reuters survey published on Wednesday found Brent crude
will average $95 a barrel over the course of 2020, a drop of $20
from the estimate in a similar poll a year ago even though spot
oil prices have changed little since then.
Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5 percent per annum, that
would mean Brent would cost only $80 in 2020 in real terms, or
in today's money, down from $109 a barrel now.
Oil-importing nations have become accustomed to crude prices
over $100 a barrel, with 2013 set to record a third year in
succession of average prices near $110 a barrel for the Brent
More than half of those polled in the Reuters survey of 20
consultants, banks and energy analysts said they expected rising
supplies and fuel efficiency gains by consumers to push oil
below $100 a barrel.