SCENARIOS: What to expect from U.S. auto bailout debate

DETROIT (Reuters) - The leaders of General Motors Corp, Chrysler LLC and Ford Motor Co are testifying before the U.S. Congress this week in a bid to secure support for a sweeping government bailout that the struggling automakers and suppliers say they need to survive.

Without a bailout, GM and Chrysler have warned they risk running desperately short of cash in the coming months.

Analysts and the industry's political allies warn that a bankruptcy by one of the Detroit Three would touch off a cascade of failures that would cost tens of thousands of jobs and threaten retiree benefits for millions more.

The U.S.-based automakers employ 240,000 in the United States directly and indirectly support more than 4.5 million other workers including thousands of dealerships and parts suppliers. Up to 3 million jobs could be at stake in a bankruptcy.

Here's what to expect whether the bailout package passes, fails or is pushed back for reconsideration in January when President-elect Barack Obama takes office.

IF THE BAILOUT PASSES:

Senate Democrats have proposed $25 billion of loans using funds from the $700 billion banking bailout, a plan that has met a cool reception from Republican lawmakers.

The proposal, open to automakers or auto component suppliers, would require assurances of the long term viability of the companies. The government would take stock warrants or senior debt in the company's receiving help.

The loans would cover a 10-year term, with a 5 percent interest rate the first five years and 9 percent thereafter.

The loans would come with strings attached, including limits on executive compensation and on the so-called golden parachutes that provide compensation for departing executives.

Critics argue that while a cash infusion may avert an immediate disaster, it won't solve the longer-term competitive problems for the industry.

Those include the 14.6 percent drop in U.S. auto sales through October and a still-developing slowdown in other key markets, notably Western Europe and Asia.

Even with a bailout, GM and Ford still need to cut more production, trim bloated dealer networks and win back a new generation of American consumers with more fuel-efficient vehicles, analysts have said.

Chrysler Chief Executive Bob Nardelli has said the No. 3 automaker, widely seen as the most vulnerable now, needs an alliance with other automakers even if it gets a share of the U.S. bailout funding.

Chrysler owner Cerberus Capital Management has also offered to throw open the books on the company that has not reported results since it was taken private in 2007.

If a bailout passes, governments in Europe and Asia will almost certainly seek assurances that a bailout would not give U.S. carmakers an unfair trade advantage in the U.S. market, the world's largest.