INSTANT VIEW: Jobless claims rise

Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:56pm EST
 
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits surged to a 26-year high last week, Labor Department data showed on Thursday, as a deepening recession forced employers to cut back on hirings.

The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in October as imports from China rose to a new record and oil imports rebounded as prices fell by a record amount, a Commerce Department report showed on Thursday.

KEY POINTS:

JOBLESS- * Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits jumped by 58,000, the biggest increase since September 2005, to a seasonally adjusted 573,000 in the week ended December 6 from an upwardly revised 515,000 the previous week. * That was the highest print since November 1982, when 612,000 workers submitted new claims for unemployment benefits. * A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 525,000 new claims versus a previously reported figure of 509,000 the week before.

TRADE- * The trade gap grew 1.1 percent to $57.2 billion, even though imports and exports both fell for the third consecutive month in the face of slumping world demand. * Wall Street economists had expected the trade gap to narrow in October to $53.5 billion. * Even as overall imports fell, imports from China increased 2.8 percent to $34.0 billion - a statistic likely to fuel U.S. criticism that China's yuan remains undervalued against the dollar. * The U.S. trade gap with China also set a record at $28.0 billion.

COMMENTS:

DAVID RESLER, CHIEF ECONOMIST, NOMURA SECURITIES, NEW YORK:

"The headlines are certainly not very surprising. I don't think it's going to have very much impact on expectations of GDP growth for the fourth quarter.

"It's now clear, what all of us were afraid of, that the global recession is taking it's toll on what had been one of the main props for the U.S. economy's expansion. Now, it may well be the case, and I think it will be the case, that the trade balance is going to shrink, because I think imports are going to fall faster than exports. Both of them represent declines in world production, that can't bee good.

"Layoffs are continuing at a rapid rate, we're going to see more job losses in the year ahead. Probably another 2 million to 3 million jobs lost in the next year. The unemployment rate is probably going to get close to 9 percent, this is decidedly a weak economy. But for your readers who may be wringing their hands in despair, we can draw some inspiration from history, and that is things often look darkest right near the turn.

"Don't take too seriously the prognostications of economists. We didn't see this coming to the extent that it did, if we saw it at all, and we never see the rebound."

CARL LANTZ, U.S. INTEREST RATE STRATEGIST, CREDIT SUISSE, NEW YORK:

"The claims data was substantially weaker than expected. That indicates that the weakness on the job front we had last month isn't going to be an anomaly. As we had expected, we are probably going to see several months of pretty nasty job losses.

"I think there was some sense in the equity markets that that November jobs report marked some sort of a bottom but this could take some of the steam out of that rally. So we have a bit of a bid here in Treasuries."

T.J. MARTA, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, FIXED-INCOME ANALYST, NEW YORK:

"Initial claims are much worse than expected, so we are looking at a landing quite similar to the hard landings of the mid 1970s and early 80s.  Continued...