Oil bears hard to find after market's record run

By Jane Merriman - Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - Bears are a rare breed, but not yet extinct in an oil market where prices have doubled in the past 12 months and risen by a quarter this year.

History shows price booms do not usually run on uninterrupted.

But for oil, which has been rising since 2002, many of the elements that could bring prices down are still missing.

"Until there's some definite evidence of a surplus growing somewhere in the system, prices will continue testing up," said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs has predicted a rise to $200 a barrel over the next six to 24 months, and other energy analysts see high prices for years to come.

There are a few analysts pointing to price-cooling factors.

"The basic fundamentals are already very much in place for prices to move lower," said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citigroup.

"Inventories are above the five-year average in terms of days of supply coverage, supply may grow in excess of 3.0 percent this year, more than double the 1.5 percent growth that the International Energy Agency forecasts for global demand."