Retail in a state of "anarchy" as consumers retreat

By Martinne Geller

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. chain stores, reeling from the slowest holiday shopping season in five years, got some more bad news on Sunday: 2008 will not be any better and could see changes that may shift the retail playing field forever.

As the National Retail Federation kicked off its annual convention in New York, two retail consultants offered negative outlooks for the U.S. retail industry, which has seen consumers pull back amid higher gasoline and food prices, a credit crunch and a prolonged housing market decline.

"It's anarchy," said Wendy Liebmann, chief executive of WSL Strategic Retail, frequently repeating the word she used to sum up the latest results of her company's bi-annual shopper study.

"Americans cannot control the big things such as oil prices, falling home values, mortgage costs and rising property taxes, so they want to control the small things," Liebmann said. "They are watching what they spend on everything."

Liebmann said most shoppers were making fewer weekly shopping trips and spending significantly less on discretionary items such as home appliances and decor, fashion accessories, electronics, perfume, computers and software.

The only two categories getting a larger share of consumers' wallets are food and pet supplies, Liebmann said, noting however, that food prices have increased.

But with shoppers changing their habits, opportunities also emerge, she noted.

Liebmann projected this year's winning retail sectors will be department stores such as Saks Inc (SKS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and J.C. Penney Co Inc (JCP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), in part because they have improved their offerings, and drug stores such as CVS Caremark Corp (CVS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), that have added things such as better brands of beauty products and in-store health clinics.