FACTBOX: Corporate bankruptcy, restructuring view for 2009
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Some of the top U.S. restructuring and bankruptcy advisors see a busy year ahead as dwindling revenues and tight lending markets force companies ranging from retailers to casinos and home builders to make tough changes or shut their doors.
Following are experts' comments on the outlook for the restructuring industry, the lending environment and the sectors that are most likely to struggle in 2009.
BRYAN MARSAL, CO-CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, ALVAREZ & MARSAL,
NEW YORK:
"I think there's going to be a tsunami of restructurings."
"This is the time of the long winter. Two years of very tight money -- bank financing -- and then two years of gradual pullout. That's a four-year time horizon. Everyone talks this silliness about the back half of '09. They're smoking something. They've got to be kidding me. What are they seeing? We're seeing the long winter coming in.
"I think they (banks) are going to have significant category hits, which are going to cause (them) to continue to be very cautious about lending. In 2009, as they recharge their battery and see that this is behind them; you will start to see lending, beginning in 2010, to loosen up just a bit, not a lot."
DAVID RESNICK, CO-HEAD OF INVESTMENT BANKING, ROTHSCHILD, NEW
YORK:
"There's a level of uncertainty hanging over the entire capital markets and until that starts to change, it's going to be a difficult period for many companies, particularly those in industries that are more severely challenged, like retail and automotives, and anything GDP-related."
"For retailers the first quarter is going to be very difficult. Many of these companies have revolving credit facilities and often the advance rates are higher during Christmas because the inventory is fresher and lenders are willing to allow the retailers to borrow more. Post-Christmas, those advance rates in some cases snap back, so that creates a liquidity challenge. That's why you are seeing so many sales and people trying to get their inventories down. I think some retailers are going to run into liquidity issues as they go through the year."
BARRY RIDINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN OF US INVESTMENT BANKING, LAZARD,
NEW YORK:
"When consumers cut back on spending it's going to negatively affect several industries. We've already seen the effects on restaurants, a number of which have filed for bankruptcy. I think we're also likely to see a lot more retailers experience problems in the coming months. In the automotive sector, the next few months for both the OEMs (car makers) and the auto suppliers are going to be critical. Another example of this consumer-led restructuring cycle is the casino industry, which is almost entirely being restructured."
"2009 is going to be one interesting year."
MARK COHEN, GLOBAL HEAD OF RESTRUCTURING AND WORKOUT, Continued...





