U.S. economic mixed signals muddle corporate savants

By Nick Carey - Analysis

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Have we bottomed yet?

Nearly a year and half into the U.S. recession and coming up on nine months since the catalyzing and cataclysmic collapse of Lehman Brothers last September, just about everyone wants to know when things will start getting better.

The simple answer is it depends on which of America's corporate giants you ask. Opinions differ greatly, reflecting the mixed signals given off by U.S. economic data in recent weeks.

For investors seeking tell-tale signs on when to climb back in to the market, their job has never been more tricky.

Some corporate chieftains have openly begun "calling a bottom" -- jargon for saying that the economic cycle has hit its lowest point -- or saying we are at least close to it.

"We are on the cusp of what will turn out to be a slow but sustainable economic recovery," Bank of America Corp's embattled Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis said at a conference in London on Wednesday. "There will continue to be a lot of pain ... but I think the worst is most likely behind us.

Lewis, whose bank bought Merrill Lynch earlier this year, was stripped of his post as chairman last month amid shareholder anger over that merger and its tumbling stock price. He projected modest U.S. and European economic growth in the second half of 2009.

Others, like conglomerate General Electric Co and No. 1 U.S. railroad Union Pacific Corp, were also hopeful, but took more of an optimistic middle-ground strategy.

While declining to say just when the economy will emerge from its current deep recession, GE's CEO, Jeff Immelt, has emphasized that he does expect it to.

"There will be a future," Immelt told an investor meeting on Tuesday. "There will be growth again someday."

Immelt has pointed to thawing credit markets as the main cause for optimism.

Union Pacific CEO Jim Young told investors on Wednesday that freight volumes appeared to have stabilized, but tempered that by saying the railroad was not planning on a recovery in 2009.

In contrast to these attempts at good cheer, executives at other companies -- like PC maker Hewlett-Packard Co and agricultural machinery maker Deere & Co -- painted a gloomier picture.

HP gave a disappointing full-year revenue outlook this week and although CEO Mark Hurd said the company had seen pockets of improvement, he told Reuters: "We're expecting roughly more of the same.

Deere lowered its full-year earnings forecast yet again on Wednesday, saying the outlook was "highly uncertain.