Retail sales surge on autos, manufacturing slows

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales grew more than expected last month as vehicle purchases bounced back, but non-auto sales rose modestly, suggesting consumers remained too cautious to drive a robust economic recovery.

Other data on Monday showed New York state manufacturing activity slowed in November for the first time in four months, further highlighting the uneven nature of economic healing after the worst recession since the 1930s.

"I think we are moving in the right direction, but it's not a straight line higher," said Sean Simko, fixed-income portfolio manager at SEI in Oaks, Pennsylvania.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales increased 1.4 percent last month after dropping 2.3 percent in September, beating market expectations for a 1 percent rise. Excluding autos, sales were up just 0.2 percent following a 0.4 percent rise the prior month.

It was the first time in more than a year sales outside autos rose for a third straight month.

For retail sales graphic see here

U.S. stocks rallied to 13-1/2 month highs on the retail data, which analysts said was a welcome sign heading into the holiday season. Consumer spending normally accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX closed above the psychologically important 1,100 level for the first time since October 2008. .N

Stocks briefly trimmed gains after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank was watching the U.S. dollar's depreciation as part of its commitment to price stability. The weak dollar has boosted commodity prices.

GROWTH FORECASTS TO BE PARED BACK

Despite the strong headline retail sales reading last month, analysts were concerned with the sharp downward revision to September's figure, which was previously reported as a 1.5 percent drop.

They said the revision indicated the government would have to adjust downwards its third quarter growth estimates.

The economy expanded at a 3.5 percent pace in the July-September period, after four straight quarters of decline, driven mostly by government stimulus.

"That adds quite to a long list of revisions. If you add everything in right now we are estimating that GDP will get revised down to 2.6 percent," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington Massachusetts.

The government publishes its second GDP estimate next week. There are worries that as government stimulus fades, rising unemployment will continue to weigh on consumer spending and hold back the recovery.