Aug 10 The pharmaceutical industry faces the biggest wave of patent expiries in its history in the next few years and many companies lack obvious replacements as today's blockbusters lose exclusivity.
Cost cutting means earnings should hold up better than revenues through the patent "cliff", but the traditionally defensive sector faces a gruelling and uncertain period.
The following table shows consensus analyst expectations for leading pharmaceutical companies through to 2013:
2009-2013 2009-2013 2009
EPS CHANGE REV CHANGE P/E Roche ROG.VX +50 pct +17.5 pct 14.3 Novartis NOVN.VX +28 pct +24 pct 11.6 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) +13 pct +3 pct 10.0 Bristol-Myers (BMY.N) +3 pct -6.5 pct 10.9 Eli Lilly (LLY.N) -4.5 pct +6 pct 8.1 AstraZeneca (AZN.L) -7.5 pct -11 pct 8.4 Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) -14.5 pct -7.5 pct 7.5 Merck+Schering (MRK.N) -- +5 pct -- Pfizer+Wyeth (PFE.N) -- -9 pct --
Source: Thomson Reuters consensus forecasts
For a related analysis on prospects for the industry and drugs in development, please click on [ID:nLV448481]
(Reporting by Ben Hirschler)