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FACTBOX-Looking over the drug industry patent cliff
August 10, 2009 / 12:09 PM / 8 years ago

FACTBOX-Looking over the drug industry patent cliff

 Aug 10 (Reuters) - The pharmaceutical industry faces the biggest wave of patent expiries in its history in the next few years and many companies lack obvious replacements as today’s blockbusters lose exclusivity.
 Cost cutting means earnings should hold up better than revenues through the patent “cliff”, but the traditionally defensive sector faces a gruelling and uncertain period.
 The following table shows consensus analyst expectations for leading pharmaceutical companies through to 2013:
  
                       2009-2013        2009-2013       2009
                       EPS CHANGE       REV CHANGE      P/E  Roche ROG.VX           +50 pct          +17.5 pct      14.3  Novartis NOVN.VX       +28 pct          +24 pct        11.6  GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L)  +13 pct          +3 pct         10.0  Bristol-Myers (BMY.N)    +3 pct           -6.5 pct       10.9  Eli Lilly (LLY.N)        -4.5 pct         +6 pct          8.1  AstraZeneca (AZN.L)      -7.5 pct         -11 pct         8.4  Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) -14.5 pct        -7.5 pct        7.5  Merck+Schering (MRK.N)    --              +5 pct          --  Pfizer+Wyeth (PFE.N)      --              -9 pct          --
 Source: Thomson Reuters consensus forecasts
  
 For a related analysis on prospects for the industry and drugs in development, please click on [ID:nLV448481]
   (Reporting by Ben Hirschler)   

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