Whoever wins White House, U.S. troops may leave Iraq

By Peter Graff - Analysis

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama say they want to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq as soon as possible. Republican John McCain says he will keep them there as long as necessary.

On the ground in Iraq, it may make little difference.

"They're not that far apart in reality, whatever they say," Gerd Nonneman, professor of Middle East politics at Britain's University of Exeter, said of the three candidates.

"All want to look to a withdrawal and don't see a long-term U.S. commitment beyond the normal kind of assistance agreements that the U.S. has with lots of countries around the world."

Those who might be most threatened by a quick U.S. pullout would be Iraq's U.S.-backed leaders. But they say they aren't alarmed by the prospect of a Democrat in the White House.

"Whoever will be in the White House, there will be an adjustment of the strategy, a modification, but not a revolutionary change or a complete departure from what has been invested here," Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari told Reuters.

Troop strength "will be decided by field commanders, it will be a condition-driven process, not electioneering promises."

Iraqis are even prepared to accept Obama's timetable for withdrawal -- the most explicit with a pledge to remove all but a small counter-terrorism force by mid-2010 -- provided it takes place gradually, said government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh.

"If the withdrawal is organized and agreed upon, then it will not represent any problem," Dabbagh told Reuters.

NUMBERS GOING DOWN

U.S. force numbers are already going down, and are unlikely ever to return to the level of the past year's "surge" of extra troops. The U.S. Army and Marines are at breaking point.

Washington now has 160,000 troops in Iraq, which will fall to 140,000 by July when five of the 20 combat brigades go home.

The U.S. commander, General David Petraeus, has said he will only begin looking at further reductions in September.

Even after the surge forces go home, that will still leave 15 combat brigades in Iraq, plus 2-3 in Afghanistan. Military experts say to provide adequate training and rest for soldiers, Washington needs to cut the Iraq mission down to about 12.

"Regardless of the strategy or who's in office, we're going to get out, just driven by the conditions of the military," retired Major-General Robert Scales, former commandant of the Army War college, told the Senate in Washington this month.