Independent spending takes back seat in 2008 race

By Andy Sullivan - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Could the Swift Boats remain at anchor this year?

Independent political groups like Swift Boat Veterans for Truth that spent millions of dollars on attack ads in 2004's presidential race have so far kept a low profile this time around, leaving the stage largely to Republican candidate John McCain and his Democratic rival, Barack Obama.

Analysts say these groups are not likely to play as prominent a role as they did in 2004, when the Swift Boat group questioned Democratic candidate John Kerry's Vietnam War service with devastating effect and liberal groups like the Media Fund spent $48 million attacking President George W. Bush.

Both Obama and McCain have said they want these outside groups, known as 527s for the section of the tax code under which they're organized, to stay out of the race for the November 4 presidential election.

"If you're a 527 preparing to get involved in the race, you have to prepare to be scolded by the candidate who will benefit the most from your efforts," said Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising.

Many donors, fearful of alienating their preferred candidate, have taken notice.

Several liberal 527s that had planned to spend heavily on TV advertising have said they will either shut down or concentrate on get-out-the vote efforts.

Big conservative donors have likewise stayed on the sidelines. T. Boone Pickens, who donated $2 million to the Swift Boats group in 2004, this year is focusing on a $58 million campaign to promote wind power and natural gas.

Freedom's Watch, a conservative group that was expected to play a large role in the presidential race, plans to focus instead on congressional races, spokesman Ed Petru said.

Wealthy liberals like financier George Soros and insurance magnate Peter Lewis spent millions in 2004 out of a belief that the Democratic Party would not be able to raise enough on its own. Obama's record-breaking haul this year has put those concerns to rest, said Michael Malbin, executive director of George Washington University's Campaign Finance Institute.

HEALTHY WAR CHESTS

Both candidates' healthy war chests have proven to be a strong deterrent, said Colby College professor Anthony Corrado, an expert on campaign finance.

Kerry was low on cash when Swift Boat Veterans for Truth began airing its TV ads in August 2004, but Obama and McCain will have plenty of money to flood the airwaves with response ads if needed, Corrado said.

Obama and the Democratic National Committee had a combined $90 million in the bank at the end of June, while McCain and the Republican National Committee had $95 million in the bank.

"This is an election where, at least so far, the voices of hundreds of thousands of smaller donors are more important in the financing of the campaigns than the interest groups," Corrado said.