How Obama went from longshot to favorite

By Caren Bohan - Analysis

JACKSONVILLE, Florida (Reuters) - Barack Obama's bid for the U.S. presidency was a longshot when he announced it to great fanfare on the steps of the Illinois capitol on a freezing day in February 2007.

At 45, he was a rising Democratic star who could make history as the first black U.S. president.

But he had only two years in U.S. Senate and no other national political experience. Former first lady Hillary Clinton, with six years in the Senate and support from many established party figures, was the clear favorite.

And America had never elected a black president.

But a well-oiled campaign operation, a hugely successful fund-raising effort, charisma and even luck have pushed Obama to the brink of victory in Tuesday's election against Republican rival John McCain.

With a calm demeanor, soothing baritone and an idealistic message focusing on hope and bridging partisan divides, Obama has a steely intensity that opponents, including Clinton and McCain, have tended to underestimate.

"He's as tough and competitive a person as I know but he's also a very civil person and the two don't always go hand in hand in politics," Obama strategist David Axelrod said.

"I think maybe people misread what are very positive qualities as somehow a lack of killer instinct or something," Axelrod said, adding that the 21-month-long campaign has tested the mettle of Obama, whose close-cropped hair is now grayer.

While amassing a $600 million war chest that shattered all fund-raising records and establishing a big network of grass-roots volunteers, Obama put together a staff known for its discipline and lack of leaks.

He racked up endorsements from high-profile figures such as talk show host Oprah Winfrey; former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker; Caroline Kennedy, daughter of slain President John F. Kennedy, and more recently, former Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Political analysts have likened the Obama campaign to the Bush campaigns of 2000 and 2004 for its efficiency, focused message and the choreography and polish of events and ads.

The Clinton and McCain camps were riven by staff infighting that spilled into the media. Both had periodic money troubles due to overspending and both had staff shake-ups.

In mid-October 2007, a Gallup poll showed Clinton with a nearly 30-point lead over Obama, creating a perception of inevitability for her campaign.

EARLY OPPOSITION TO IRAQ WAR

Obama's early opposition to the Iraq war helped dent some of Clinton's advantages. Clinton had voted for a resolution authorizing the 2003 invasion of Iraq, a stance unpopular with the base of her party. Like other Democrats who voted for that resolution, she later became a war critic.