Second votes could sway Iowa Democratic race

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

ANKENY, Iowa (Reuters) - In Iowa's unpredictable Democratic presidential scramble, a voter's second choice can be as important as the first -- and ultimately could make the difference in a tight race.

Under the arcane rules in Iowa's January 3 contest, which opens the state-by-state race to choose candidates for the November 2008 election, Democratic contenders are required to muster support from at least 15 percent of the attendees in each precinct to be considered viable.

If a candidate cannot reach that threshold, his backers can switch to a second choice. This is a potential boost for leading contenders Barack Obama, John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, whose campaigns have worked hard to identify and court supporters of second-tier contenders.

In many precincts, supporters of candidates like New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich or Sens. Joseph Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut could find themselves free agents looking for someone else to back.

The phenomenon could be another hurdle for Clinton in Iowa, as polls show Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina, and Obama, a first-term Illinois senator, gain slightly more second-choice voters.

"The question of viability and second choices is a huge wild card, particularly in a very close race," said Gordon Fischer, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party and an Obama supporter.

"There is no question it can make a difference," he said. "And there is no question nobody really knows what will happen."

Iowa kicks off the state-by-state battle to pick nominees for the November 2008 election and most candidates put enormous effort into making a strong showing in the Midwestern state.

The rules of the Republican contest in Iowa, which takes place on the same day, do not allow for second-choice votes.

DEMOCRATIC KINGMAKERS

The second-choice rules could make kingmakers of Democratic voters like Gary and Carol Keast, both 71, a retired couple from the state capital Des Moines who support Biden because they like his foreign policy experience.

But they plan to go their separate ways if Biden's support does not reach 15 percent in their precinct. He will go with Obama. She is a Clinton fan.

"I think she has the best chance to win (the presidency), and I want a Democrat to win," Carol Keast said of Clinton, a New York senator and former first lady.

Gary Keast said he liked Obama's early opposition to the Iraq war when he was an Illinois state senator. "The fact that he wasn't part of the war is a big plus," he said.

Polls show that among supporters of Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich -- the candidates most likely to fail to meet the threshold in a given precinct -- Edwards was the second choice of 29 percent, Obama 24 percent and Clinton 15 percent in a recent Rasmussen poll.