Will Texas be Hillary Clinton's last stand?

By Jeff Franks

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Texas was supposed to be a bastion of support for Hillary Clinton in the battle for the U.S. Democratic presidential nomination, but it may turn out to be her Alamo.

Her wide lead in Lone Star state polls has disappeared, and experts say it is looking more and more like her last stand against Barack Obama.

In one of history's most famous battles, Texas independence fighters tried to stop the Mexican army at the Alamo in 1836, but they were wiped out by a larger force that overwhelmed them.

In this case, it is not soldiers, but Obama's momentum, threatening to do the same thing to Clinton's presidential aspirations.

After winning 11 straight contests, Obama, an Illinois senator, has overtaken Clinton in the Texas polls, erasing a double-digit lead she held a month ago.

A Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle poll released on Saturday showed Obama leading 45 percent to 43 percent. The survey had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Texas and Ohio will vote on Tuesday in must-win primaries for Clinton, a New York senator.

"It is Hillary's last stand and increasingly looks like it won't be successful," said Matthew Wilson, political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

"At this point, Obama can do no wrong. He's on an incredible ride and the air hasn't started coming out of his balloon yet."

Texas, next door to former President Bill Clinton's home state of Arkansas, was supposed to be Clinton country.

The Clintons forged strong ties to Texas Democrats while working in the state during the 1972 presidential campaign of George McGovern and had historic ties to black and Hispanic voters.

But Obama, according to recent polls, has taken big bites out of the Clinton coalition by splitting the white vote and winning sweeping support from black voters.

HISPANIC VOTES

Clinton is pinning her hopes largely on a big Hispanic vote in her favor.

Hispanics, by some estimates, make up about 20 percent or more of registered voters in Texas, compared to 12 percent for blacks and 66 percent for whites.