Obama faces Super Tuesday challenge with Hispanics

By Daniel Trotta

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The perception that Hispanics won't vote for Barack Obama because he is black is a myth, and Obama trails Hillary Clinton among Latinos because she has long courted their vote and he was late to reach out, experts say.

Large numbers of Hispanic or Latino voters will head to the polls for "Super Tuesday" voting on February 5 in states such as California, New York, New Jersey, Arizona and New Mexico, where public opinion polls put Clinton ahead in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination.

In all, Democrats vote or caucus in 22 states on the most important day for choosing the major party presidential candidates who will face off in the November 4 general election.

Latinos could make up 25 percent of the electorate in the Democratic primary in California. There are fewer Latino voters in other states but enough to tip the balance in a close race, if they come out to vote.

In the first nominating contest with large numbers of Latino voters -- the Nevada caucuses of January 19 -- Clinton won 64 percent of their vote compared to 26 percent for Obama, according to an MSNBC exit poll.

"Simply it is wrong to look at the vote in Nevada and call that an anti-Obama vote or an anti-black vote," said Matt Barreto, a political scientist at the University of Washington. He cited Clinton's superior name recognition and Bill Clinton's deep popularity from his time as president, when he appointed hundreds of Latinos to federal posts.

Clinton, who would be the first woman U.S. president, also won the primary in Florida, where 12 percent of Democratic voters were Hispanic and she won them by a 2 to 1 margin over Obama. But the candidates did not campaign there because of a party dispute.

Political analysts expect Clinton to win the Hispanic vote on Super Tuesday but say Obama could win some of those states by cutting into her advantage with Latinos.

Clinton pollster Sergio Bendixen fueled controversy when he told the New Yorker magazine: "The Hispanic voter -- and I want to say this very carefully -- has not shown a lot of willingness or affinity to support black candidates."

Barreto and others who study Latino voting trends say Bendixen was wrong, citing numerous recent examples of black candidates winning overwhelming majorities of Latino voters in major statewide or mayoral races.

"The suggestion of black-Latino electoral polarization is greatly overstated," said Rodolfo de la Garza, a political scientist at New York's Columbia University.

The Clinton team distanced itself from Bendixen's comment.

"That's not what we believe, definitely," said Fabiola Rodriguez-Ciampoli, director of Hispanic communications for the Clinton campaign. "If you look at the facts, Latinos are voting for Hillary and not for Senator Obama because they know her. She has a history with the Latino community."

OBAMA TIMING QUESTIONED

If Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, comes up short with Hispanics on Super Tuesday, it may have more do with his timing, experts say.