Blacks bounce between hope, doubt of Obama win

By Andrea Hopkins

CINCINNATI (Reuters) - Sharrell Shields speaks for many African Americans when she says she's starting to believe Democrat Barack Obama is going to be the next U.S. president -- but a certain skepticism keeps her hopes in check.

While some polls show Obama, who would be the first black president, has opened a double-digit lead over Republican John McCain with just three weeks to go before the November 4 election, generations of slow and sometimes stalled steps toward racial equality have left some blacks wary of disappointment.

"I'm about half and half right now that he'll win," said Shields, an 18-year-old university student and Obama supporter at a union-sponsored candidate forum in Cincinnati.

"Now when November comes and we're almost there, then I'll believe. Right now, I just have my fingers crossed."

Baptist preacher and Obama backer Brenda Girton-Mitchell, 60, said she had enough faith "in the human psyche" to believe that Obama would prevail over McCain.

But she echoes blacks across the country when she notes that polls have fooled them before, citing the famous case of Tom Bradley, an African American who narrowly lost the 1982 California governor's election despite leading in polls.

Bradley's defeat was a surprise and some observers concluded that many white voters had lied about their intentions.

"Very often people are not very honest about race, sexual preferences. They say the politically correct thing," said Girton-Mitchell, interviewed in downtown Washington, D.C., during lunch hour.

"I believe there are some people who say, 'I can vote for a black man' in public but then go into the voting booth (and change their mind)."

Black Americans faced obstacles to voting in the U.S. South until the mid-1960s and authorities there backed a violent campaign that included murders and church burnings to prevent blacks from registering to vote.

Since then, African Americans have voted overwhelmingly for Democrats and they form the party's most reliable ethnic constituency. Black turnout is expected to increase this year because of enthusiasm for Obama and he is expected to get about 95 percent of that vote, but many remain wary because of what they say are electoral setbacks for black candidates.

NOT THERE YET

Author Gil Robertson, an Obama supporter, said the success of the Illinois senator leaves African Americans feeling both optimistic and cynical -- wary that centuries of raised hopes and disappointments may be repeated once more.

"We have every reason to be pessimistic given our history and experiences in this country," Robertson said. "Folks are hopeful but I tell people: 'Don't get too caught up in this because you might be let down.'"

Todd Shaw, a professor of political science at the University of South Carolina, agreed.