`More Signs of Recovery,` Says Barclays Wealth Monthly Strategy Update

Mon Jul 6, 2009 10:25am EDT
 
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NEW YORK--(Business Wire)--
Our Investment Themes and Opinions:

* Financial markets closer to fair value 
* Asia continues to be the most economically dynamic region globally 
* Short-term interest rates to stay low 
* Inflation is not the problem: inflation expectations could be 
* Downside macroeconomic risks should not be totally dismissed

Our Macro view:

* More and more evidence is accumulating to suggest that the decline in economic
activity is coming to an end. 
* Emerging markets are leading the way. Purchasing Managers` Indices (a measure
of business confidence) are back above 50 in China. 
* We expect a weak recovery in US growth next year. Elsewhere in the developed
economies, the prospects are for even more modest growth. 
* Commodity prices may rise further, increasing inflation fears. But we forecast
that global inflation will run at only about 2% next year, close to its 2009
level.

Our investment calls include the following:

* Increase portfolio risk levels to strategic norms.In many cases, this will
involve increasing portfolio risk by adding to equity holdings.

* Maintain investments in corporate bonds. Credit market conditions have
improved but still reflect an extremely pessimistic economic outlook.

* Add or maintain investments in Asia. An allocation to Asia should include an
investment in Japanese stocks. The Japanese economy is becoming increasingly
integrated into the larger, dynamic Asia story.

* Within Europe, overweight the German market. The German export economy has
emerged as one of the most dynamic in Europe and many German companies export to
Asia.

* Investment in commodities to leverage the Asia story and protect against a
rise in inflation expectations. Corn and soy beans look particularly attractive
over a two or three year horizon.

Aaron S. Gurwitz, Head of Global Investment Strategy at Barclays Wealth, said,

"The great springtime global equity market rally of 2009 is now fading. The
rally reflected growing confidence that the global economy was not headed for a
recession. That process is now apparently complete. We remain optimistic for
financial markets overall in the medium term, but suggest some caution for the
next quarter or so." 

The following link will take you directly to the report which is available to
download from our website: http://www.barclayswealth.com/

About Barclays Wealth 

Barclays Wealth is a leading global wealth manager, and the UK`s largest, with
total client assets of $210bn (£145bn), as at 31 December 2008. With offices in
25 countries, Barclays Wealth serves affluent, high net worth and intermediary
clients worldwide, providing international and private banking, investment
management, fiduciary services, and brokerage. 

Barclays Group is a major global financial services provider engaged in retail
and commercial banking, credit cards, investment banking, wealth management and
investment management services with an extensive international presence in
Europe, the Americas, Africa and Asia. 

With over 300 years of history and expertise in banking, Barclays operates in
over 50 countries and employs over 155,000 people. Barclays moves, lends,
invests and protects money for over 48 million customers and clients worldwide. 

For further information about Barclays Wealth in the Americas, please visit
www.barclayswealthamericas.com. 

Barclays Wealth is the wealth management division of Barclays Bank PLC,
functioning through Barclays Capital Inc. in the United States. Barclays Capital
Inc., an affiliate of Barclays Bank PLC, is a U.S. registered broker-dealer and
regulated by the Securities & Exchange Commission. The registered office of
Barclays Capital Inc. is 200 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10166. Barclays Bank PLC
is registered in England and Wales (registered no. 1026167) with a registered
office at 1 Churchill Place, London, E14 5HP, United Kingdom. Barclays Bank PLC
is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Member SIPC. 



Barclays Wealth
Monique Wise, 212-526-3568
Corporate Communications 

Copyright Business Wire 2009

 

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