Census Bureau News - Population Dynamics of the Great Plains: 1950 to 2007

Great Plains' Overall Population Increase Masks Losses in Majority of its
Counties

WASHINGTON, July 14 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Although the population of the
Great Plains has grown more rapidly than the U.S. population as a whole since
the middle of the 20th century, most of its counties have lost population over
the period, according to a Census Bureau report released today. The region's
overall population increase was limited primarily to metropolitan counties.

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The report, Population Dynamics of the Great Plains: 1950 to 2007, details
population trends over the period in this vast area stretching across the
nation's midsection using a combination of decennial census data and annual
population estimates. The Great Plains stretches across parts of 10 states,
from the Mexican to the Canadian border, containing fully 18 percent of the
land mass of the lower 48 states and roughly 3 percent of their population.
(See map 1.)

According to the report, the Great Plains population more than doubled over
the period, from 4.9 million in 1950 to 9.9 million in 2007. Its 102 percent
population increase slightly exceeded the 99 percent rise for the U.S. as a
whole. Yet at the same time, 244 of the region's 376 counties saw their
populations decline, with 69 of them losing more than half their population.
(See maps 2 and 3.)

While counties in the Great Plains' metro areas more than tripled in
population density over the 57-year period, those outside metro and micro
areas experienced a 23 percent decline, becoming even more sparsely populated.
As a result, by 2007, the average population density for the latter group of
counties fell below the historical standard for a settled area. (A metro area
contains a core urban area of 50,000 or more population, and a micro area
contains an urban core of 10,000 to 49,999 people.)

In many of the counties outside metro areas, deaths exceeded births, net
outmigration was common and there was an older age structure. For instance,
among the 261 Great Plains counties with fewer than 10,000 people, most (239)
had negative net migration between 2000 and 2007, with more than half (133)
also having more deaths than births. Almost 55 percent of Great Plains
counties had a 2007 median age of at least 40 years, with most located outside
metro areas.

In contrast, all 34 Great Plains counties with populations of at least 50,000
had more births than deaths, and 23 of the 34 had positive net migration. Not
coincidentally, the percentage of the Great Plains population living in metro
areas rose from 39 percent in 1950 to 68 percent in 2007. A young population
residing in its metro areas resulted in the Great Plains actually having a
slightly younger overall age structure than that of the U.S. as a whole.

Other highlights:
-- Growth in the Great Plains has been concentrated within counties along
the periphery of the region in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico
and Texas. Other areas of growth include a corridor of counties
running
through the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles into the southwestern corner
of Kansas and a group of counties in and around the Black Hills of
South
Dakota.
-- Great Plains counties located in Colorado and Texas -- one third of
the
Great Plains counties -- gained 4.8 million people and accounted for
96
percent of the total population growth in the region.
-- Micropolitan counties in the Great Plains gained population between
1950
and 2007. Their share of the 2007 population, 17 percent, was down
from
23 percent but still higher than the micropolitan share for the U.S.
(10
percent).
-- Twenty of the 25 Great Plains counties in North Dakota lost population
over the 1950 to 2007 period, as did 46 of the 58 Great Plains
counties
in Kansas.
-- Almost 60 percent of Great Plains counties reached their maximum
population prior to 1950, with most of those peaking between 1900 and
1920.

-- Four out of five Great Plains counties had a percentage 65 and older
that was higher than the U.S. average of 13 percent. McIntosh County,
N.D., had the highest percentage of its population 65 and older in the
U.S. in 2007: 36 percent.

The report uses 100 percent-count decennial census data for the years 1950
through 2000, estimates of the total population for July 1, 2007, and the
components of change for 2000 to 2007. The Office of Management and Budget's
statistical area definitions for metro and micro areas are those issued by the
agency in December 2006.

Editor's note: The report can be accessed at
http://www.census.gov/prod/2009pubs/p25-1137.pdf.

State contacts (http://www.census.gov/sdc/www/)

Robert Bernstein
Public Information Office
301-763-3030/3762 (fax)
e-mail: pio@census.gov

SOURCE U.S. Census Bureau

Robert Bernstein, Public Information Office of the U.S. Census Bureau,
+1-301-763-3030, +1-301-763-3762 (fax), pio@census.gov