Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator Rebounds; Rises to 36.9, Highest Level Since August 2008

Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator Rebounds; Rises to 36.9, Highest Level
Since August 2008
Media optimism on economy again runs counter to consumer sentiment; Stock
market gains, GDP growth lead positive economic coverage

NEW YORK, Nov. 2 /PRNewswire/ -- The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator
(ESI) rose to 36.9 in October, up from 34.1 in September as a result of
positive media coverage of ongoing stock market gains and news that the gross
domestic product rose at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter.
The gain in the ESI runs counter to unexpectedly large drops in two leading
consumer-based economic indicators.

The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator aims to predict the health of the
U.S. economy by analyzing the coverage of 15 major daily newspapers in the
U.S. The two leading consumer-based economic indicators, the University of
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board's Consumer
Confidence Index, use national surveys to measure consumer attitudes about the
state of the U.S. economy. The Consumer Confidence Index dropped dramatically
to 47.7 in October, its second consecutive monthly decline. The Consumer
Sentiment Index fell to 69.4 in October after having posted an unexpectedly
strong rise in September.

According to Dow Jones Newswires 'Money Talks' columnist Alen Mattich, the
divergence in the indicators can be explained by the difference in how the
media and consumers view economic news. "Consumers are likely to focus on the
continuing bad employment news because of the fear that they could be next,"
Mattich said. "On the other hand, there was a drop off in coverage of the
recession as the media focus on broader positive economic trends such as the
stock market's rebound, improved corporate earnings and the growth in the GDP
outweighed coverage of mixed or negative news during the month."

The ESI has risen 10 out of 12 months since its low of 22.2 in November 2008,
data that confirm the consensus among economists that the U.S. recession ended
sometime early in the summer.

"The ESI's strong rise since its lows in November 2008 shows the U.S. economy
is clearly getting better, a message confirmed by the big jump in
third-quarter GDP," Mattich said. "But the ESI's relatively low level suggests
the recovery remains vulnerable to reversal. In the past two cycles, an
economic upturn wasn't firmly established until the ESI reached the upper 30s
or lower 40s."

Mattich points out that a gain in the ESI historically indicates improvement
in the labor market, but significant improvement may still be months away. "In
past economic recoveries, increases in the ESI have lead improvements in
non-farm payroll by two to five months and improvement in the unemployment
rate by five to seven months," Mattich said.

The ESI represents one of the most comprehensive and far-reaching examinations
of media coverage as an economic indicator. The ESI's back-testing to 1990
shows that the ESI clearly highlighted the risk that the U.S. economy was
sliding into recession in 2001 and 2008 and suggests the indicator can help
predict economic turning points as much as seven months in advance of other
indicators.

Unlike some other indicators where 50 is a clear break-point between recession
and recovery, the ESI needs to be read with reference to longer trends. Based
on the ESI's performance since 1990, previous recoveries have been marked by
substantial month-to-month gains, with a jump of three points seeming to be a
sign of significant improvement. A drop below 50 marks the point at which
there is a clear risk of a slowdown.

The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator is calculated using a proprietary
algorithm through Dow Jones Insight, a media tracking and analysis tool. More
information about the Economic Sentiment Indicator and its development is
available at http://solutions.dowjones.com/esi .

Dow Jones Insight uses innovative text mining and analytic technologies to
help organizations keep informed about relevant issues, news, conversations
and trends emerging in mainstream, Web and social media. Dow Jones Insight's
global content collection includes more than 25,000 news and information
sources as well as blogs, message boards, and posts from YouTube and Twitter.

About Dow Jones
Dow Jones & Company is a News Corporation company. (Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA; ASX:
NWS, NWSLV; www.newscorp.com) Dow Jones is a leading provider of global
business news and information services. Its Consumer Media Group publishes The
Wall Street Journal, Barron's, MarketWatch and the Far Eastern Economic
Review. Its Enterprise Media Group includes; Dow Jones Business & Relationship
Intelligence, Dow Jones Newswires, Dow Jones Factiva, Dow Jones Client
Solutions, Dow Jones Indexes and Dow Jones Financial Information Services. Its
Local Media Group operates community-based information franchises. Dow Jones
owns 50 percent of SmartMoney and 33 percent of STOXX Ltd. and provides news
content to radio stations in the U.S.

The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator is provided for analysis purposes
only and Dow Jones makes no representation that the indicator is a definitive
predictor of sentiment or the health of the U.S. economy. This report does
not in any way reflect an opinion of Dow Jones regarding the U.S. economy or
the suitability of any investments.

SOURCE Dow Jones & Company

Rob Thibault of Dow Jones & Company, +1-609-627-2680, Mobile: +1-609-216-4780,
robert.thibault@dowjones.com