October Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; PMI at 55.7%; New Orders, Production and Employment Growing; Inventories Contracting; Supplier Deliveries Slower

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20091102005072/en

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports
released across the country. The national report`s information reflects the
entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data
from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is
not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information
compiled in this report is for the month of October 2009.
TEMPE, Ariz.--(Business Wire)--
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in October for the third
consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the sixth consecutive month,
say the nation`s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On
Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the
Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The
manufacturing sector grew for the third consecutive month in October, and the
rate of growth is the highest since April 2006 when the PMI registered 56
percent. The jump in the index was driven by production and employment, with
both registering significant gains. Production appears to be benefiting from the
continuing strength in new orders, while the improvement in employment is due to
some callbacks and opportunities for temporary workers. Overall, it appears that
inventories are balanced and that manufacturing is in a sustainable recovery
mode."

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

In October, 13 of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth. The
industries - listed in order - are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather
& Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Computer &
Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products;
Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Printing & Related Support
Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components; and Paper Products. The three industries reporting contraction in
October are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; and Wood Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

* "We are beginning to be affected greatly by lead-time increases on
semiconductor components." (Computer & Electronic Products)
* "Still a very difficult environment - commodity increases threaten recovery
and don`t seem to correlate with any supply/demand fundamentals." (Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products)
* "Automotive demand still remains strong even after `cash for clunkers.`"
(Fabricated Metal Products) [indicated for the second month]
* "After several rather busy months, we are seeing the order intake for early
next year soften." (Transportation Equipment)
* "The improvement seen earlier is not holding." (Primary Metals)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE

OCTOBER 2009

Index Series Series Percentage Direction Rate Trend(a)
Index Index Point of Change (Months)
October September Change

PMI 55.7 52.6 +3.1 Growing Faster 3
New Orders 58.5 60.8 -2.3 Growing Slower 4
Production 63.3 55.7 +7.6 Growing Faster 5
Employment 53.1 46.2 +6.9 Growing From Contracting 1
Supplier Deliveries 56.9 58.0 -1.1 Slowing Slower 5
Inventories 46.9 42.5 +4.4 Contracting Slower 42
Customers` Inventories 38.5 39.0 -0.5 Too Low Faster 7
Prices 65.0 63.5 +1.5 Increasing Faster 4
Backlog of Orders 53.5 53.5 0.0 Growing Same 3
Exports 55.5 55.0 +0.5 Growing Faster 4
Imports 51.0 52.0 -1.0 Growing Slower 2
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 6

Manufacturing Sector
Growing Faster 3

(a) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum (4); Caustic Soda; Copper (5); Copper Based Products (4); Natural Gas;
Plastics; Plastic Products (2); Polypropylene (4); Stainless Steel (3); Steel
(4); and Steel Surcharges.

Commodities Down in Price

Corrugated Containers is the only commodity reported down in price.

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated
after each item.

OCTOBER 2009 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

PMI

The recovery in manufacturing strengthened in October as the PMI registered 55.7
percent, which is 3.1 percentage points higher than the 52.6 percent reported in
September, and the highest reading for the index since April 2006 (56 percent).
A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally
expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an
expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the
sixth consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the
manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month. Ore stated, "The past
relationship between the PMI and the overall economyindicates that the average
PMI for January through October (44.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.1 percent
increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, if the PMI for October
(55.7 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4.5 percent increase in real
GDP annually."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month PMI Month PMI

Oct 2009 55.7 Apr 2009 40.1
Sep 2009 52.6 Mar 2009 36.3
Aug 2009 52.9 Feb 2009 35.8
Jul 2009 48.9 Jan 2009 35.6
Jun 2009 44.8 Dec 2008 32.9
May 2009 42.8 Nov 2008 36.6
Average for 12 months - 42.9
High - 55.7

Low - 32.9

New Orders

ISM`s New Orders Index registered 58.5 percent in October, 2.3 percentage points
lower than the 60.8 percent registered in September. This is the fourth
consecutive month of growth in the New Orders Index. A New Orders Index above
48.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census
Bureau`s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The nine industries reporting growth in new orders in October - listed in order
- are: Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products;
Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components;
Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products. The four industries reporting
decreases in new orders in October are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood
Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Primary Metals.

New Orders %Better %Same %Worse Net Index

Oct 2009 34 42 24 +10 58.5
Sep 2009 42 38 20 +22 60.8
Aug 2009 43 41 16 +27 64.9
Jul 2009 33 45 22 +11 55.3

Production

ISM`s Production Index registered 63.3 percent in October, which is an increase
of 7.6 percentage points from the September reading of 55.7 percent. An index
above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the
Federal Reserve Board`s Industrial Production figures. This is the fifth
consecutive month the Production Index has registered above 50 percent.

The 11 industries reporting growth in production during the month of October -
listed in order - are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products;
Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic
Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Printing & Related Support Activities;
Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage &
Tobacco Products. The two industries reporting decreases in production in
October are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products and Primary Metals.

Production %Better %Same %Worse Net Index

Oct 2009 37 48 15 +22 63.3
Sep 2009 36 46 18 +18 55.7
Aug 2009 43 39 18 +25 61.9
Jul 2009 33 50 17 +16 57.9

Employment

ISM`s Employment Index registered 53.1 percent in October, which is 6.9
percentage points higher than the 46.2 percent reported in September. This is
the first month of growth in manufacturing employment following 14 consecutive
months of decline. An Employment Index above 49.7 percent, over time, is
generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
data on manufacturing employment.

Eight of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in employment in
October in the following order: Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather &
Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer &
Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products. The four industries that
reported decreases in employment during October are: Primary Metals; Paper
Products; Chemical Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

Employment %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index

Oct 2009 20 64 16 +4 53.1
Sep 2009 15 62 23 -8 46.2
Aug 2009 13 68 19 -6 46.4
Jul 2009 11 70 19 -8 45.6

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower
in October as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.9 percent, which is
1.1 percentage points lower than the 58 percent registered in September. This is
the fifth consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50
percent, following eight months of faster delivery performance. A reading above
50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The seven industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in October - listed in
order - are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products;
Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery;
and Chemical Products. The two industries reporting faster deliveries in October
are: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Products.

Supplier Deliveries %Slower %Same %Faster Net Index

Oct 2009 15 83 2 +13 56.9
Sep 2009 24 71 5 +19 58.0
Aug 2009 18 79 3 +15 57.1
Jul 2009 14 80 6 +8 52.0

Inventories

Manufacturers` inventories contracted at a slower rate in October as the
Inventories Index registered 46.9 percent. The index is 4.4 percentage points
higher than the September reading of 42.5 percent. An Inventories Index greater
than 42.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the
Bureau of Economic Analysis` (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories
(in chained 2000 dollars).

Six of the 18 manufacturing industries reported higher inventories in October in
the following order: Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied
Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage &
Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment. The six industries that reported
decreases in inventories in October - listed in order - are: Paper Products;
Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related
Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components.

Inventories %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index

Oct 2009 19 55 26 -7 46.9
Sep 2009 14 55 31 -17 42.5
Aug 2009 14 44 42 -28 34.4
Jul 2009 5 55 40 -35 33.5

Customers` Inventories(b)

The ISM Customers` Inventories Index registered 38.5 percent in October,
slightly lower than in September when the index registered 39 percent. The index
indicates that respondents believe their customers` inventories are too low at
this time. This is the seventh consecutive month the Customers` Inventories
Index has been below 50 percent, following eight months above 50 percent.

Plastics & Rubber Products is the only industry reporting higher customers`
inventories during October. The 11 industries that reported lower customers`
inventories during October - listed in order - are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic
Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic
Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products;
Machinery; and Chemical Products.

Customers` Inventories % %Too %About %Too Net Index
Reporting High Right Low

Oct 2009 75 7 63 30 -23 38.5
Sep 2009 71 9 60 31 -22 39.0
Aug 2009 75 12 54 34 -22 39.0
Jul 2009 77 15 55 30 -15 42.5

Prices(b)

The ISM Prices Index registered 65 percent in October, 1.5 percentage points
higher than the 63.5 percent reported in September. This is the fourth
consecutive month that the Prices Index has registered above 50 percent. While
37 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 7 percent reported
paying lower prices, 56 percent of supply executives reported paying the same
prices as in September. A Prices Index above 47.6 percent, over time, is
generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Index of Manufacturers Prices.

The 12 industries reporting paying increased prices during the month of October
- listed in order - are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous
Manufacturing; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical
Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Electrical
Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products;
Transportation Equipment; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The only
industry that reported paying lower prices during October is Nonmetallic Mineral
Products.

Prices %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index

Oct 2009 37 56 7 +30 65.0
Sep 2009 36 55 9 +27 63.5
Aug 2009 38 54 8 +30 65.0
Jul 2009 28 54 18 +10 55.0

Backlog of Orders(b)

ISM`s Backlog of Orders Index registered 53.5 percent in October, the same as
reported in September. Of the 81 percent of respondents who reported their
backlog of orders, 27 percent reported greater backlogs, 20 percent reported
smaller backlogs, and 53 percent reported no change from September.

The nine industries reporting increased order backlogs in October - listed in
order - are: Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products;
Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Chemical
Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal
Products. The six industries that reported decreases in order backlogs during
October - listed in order - are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral
Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals;
Plastics & Rubber Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Backlog of Orders % %Greater %Same %Less Net Index
Reporting

Oct 2009 81 27 53 20 +7 53.5
Sep 2009 82 25 57 18 +7 53.5
Aug 2009 85 28 49 23 +5 52.5
Jul 2009 86 21 58 21 0 50.0

New Export Orders(b)

ISM`s New Export Orders Index registered 55.5 percent in October, 0.5 percentage
point higher than the 55 percent reported in September. This is the fourth
consecutive month of growth in the New Export Orders Index, following nine
consecutive months of contraction.

The seven industries reporting growth in new export orders in October - listed
in order - are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components;
Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. The
four industries that reported decreases in new export orders in October are:
Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; and
Fabricated Metal Products.

New Export Orders % %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index
Reporting

Oct 2009 75 24 63 13 +11 55.5
Sep 2009 75 20 70 10 +10 55.0
Aug 2009 74 24 63 13 +11 55.5
Jul 2009 76 16 69 15 +1 50.5

Imports(b)

Imports of materials by manufacturers expanded in October as the Imports Index
registered 51 percent, 1 percentage point lower than the 52 percent reported in
September. Imports have contracted in 18 of the last 21 months.

The five industries reporting growth in imports during the month of October are:
Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper
Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Machinery. The five industries that
reported decreases in imports in October are: Primary Metals; Electrical
Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products.

Imports % %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index
Reporting

Oct 2009 82 14 74 12 +2 51.0
Sep 2009 80 13 78 9 +4 52.0
Aug 2009 81 15 69 16 -1 49.5
Jul 2009 83 13 74 13 0 50.0

(b) The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers` Inventories, Imports and New
Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal
adjustments.

Buying Policy

Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures increased 4 days to 103
days. Average lead time for Production Materials decreased 5 days to 41 days.
Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased
2 days to 21 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital Expenditures Hand-to- 30 60 90 6 1 Average
Mouth Days
Days Days Months Year+ Days

Oct 2009 34 7 10 15 24 10 103
Sep 2009 30 8 15 16 22 9 99
Aug 2009 38 6 10 13 22 11 101
Jul 2009 32 9 10 18 20 11 102

Production Materials Hand-to- 30 60 90 6 1 Average
Mouth Days Days Days Months Year+ Days

Oct 2009 25 40 26 6 2 1 41
Sep 2009 28 37 19 11 3 2 46
Aug 2009 27 40 20 8 2 3 47
Jul 2009 31 42 15 6 4 2 43

MRO Supplies Hand-to- 30 60 90 6 1 Average
Mouth Days Days Days Months Year+ Days

Oct 2009 54 32 12 2 0 0 21
Sep 2009 55 28 12 5 0 0 23
Aug 2009 51 36 12 0 0 1 24
Jul 2009 53 35 9 2 1 0 22

About this Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply
managers based on information they have collected within their respective
organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this
release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the
data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data
sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The ManufacturingISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from
purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing
Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry`s
contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey
Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products;
Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum
& Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic
Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer
& Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components;
Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous
Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry,
sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to
the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of
Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries,
Inventories, Customers` Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows
the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of
responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for
Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and
faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data
and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive
responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal
adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and
Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive
intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather
conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to
non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S.
Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when
conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally
adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with equal weights: New
Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient
summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of
change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy
is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally
declining. A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, indicates
that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally
expanding; below 41.2 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50
percent or 41.2 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or
decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the
departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series,
as determined by regression analysis.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month`s
lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments
are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair
and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days,
60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the
weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised,
and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute
for Supply Management. The Institute for Supply Management, established in 1915,
is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the
most respected. ISM`s mission is to lead the supply management profession
through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and
education. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for
a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the ManufacturingISM Report On Business® is posted on
ISM`s Web site at www.ism.ws on the first business day of every month after
10:10 a.m. (ET).

The next ManufacturingISM Report On Business® featuring the November 2009 data
will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Tuesday, December 1, 2009.

Institute for Supply Management, Tempe
Rose Marie Goupil, 800-888-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws

Copyright Business Wire 2009