Business Roundtable Releases Fourth Quarter 2007 CEO Economic Outlook Survey

Tue Dec 4, 2007 12:05pm EST
 
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New CEO Survey Forecasts Steady Economic Conditions in the Next
   Six Months; U.S. Chief Executives Cite Energy and Health Care as
                   Greatest Cost Pressures They Face
WASHINGTON--(Business Wire)--Despite a relatively uncertain economic cycle, the leaders of
America's top companies showed a slight uptick in their expectations
for the economy over the next six months, according to Business
Roundtable's fourth quarter 2007 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, released
today.

   The CEO Economic Outlook Index, which indicates how CEOs believe
the economy will perform in the six months ahead, improved moderately,
rising more than two points from last quarter's 77.4 to 79.5 today.

   "This quarter's survey suggests that CEOs, as a whole, still see
the economy as steady and that the vast majority expect their sales,
capital spending and employment levels to either increase or remain
steady in the first half of 2008," said Harold McGraw III, chairman of
Business Roundtable and chairman, president and CEO of The McGraw-Hill
Companies. "These latest results demonstrate tempered CEO confidence
with a slight rebounding of expectations since last quarter."

   In response to the annual question on cost pressures facing their
businesses, a majority of CEOs cited energy and health care
expenditures, equally, as their greatest fiscal pressures.

   Business Roundtable, an association of chief executive officers of
leading corporations, represents a combined workforce of more than 10
million employees and $4.5 trillion in annual revenues.

   The survey's key findings for the next six months include:

-0-
*T

----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        Increase   No Change  Decrease
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1.  How do you expect your company's
     sales to change in the next six       70%        17%       13%
     months?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2.  How do you expect your company's
     U.S. capital spending to change       35%        51%       14%
     in the next six months?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
3.  How do you expect your company's
     U.S. employment to change in the      33%        45%       22%
     next six months?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

*T

   Health Care and Energy Are Now Top Cost Pressures

   This year's survey marked the first in which health care and
energy were equally identified as the top cost pressures for CEOs with
32 percent of respondents identifying health care and 32 percent
identifying energy. The concern over energy costs has doubled from
last year, when 16 percent of CEOs cited energy expenditures as the
top cost.

   "For the last four consecutive years, health care costs, which
impact virtually all Roundtable companies, have been cited as the top
pressure. But now, with oil approaching $100 a barrel, energy costs
have risen to the top concern in CEOs' minds," noted McGraw.

   Following energy and health care, other CEO cost pressures in this
year's survey were material costs (17 percent), litigation costs (10
percent), labor costs (5 percent), and capital costs (1 percent).

   CEO Economic Outlook Index for Fourth Quarter

   On overall economic growth, the CEOs offered their first estimate
of GDP growth in 2008, and on average they are assuming GDP growth of
2.1 percent in their business plans.

   The CEO Economic Outlook Index combines the responses on projected
sales, capital spending and employment into an overall index that
shows how the CEOs believe the U.S. economy will perform in the six
months ahead. It is a diffusion index centered on 50, which means
anything above 50 is expansion and anything below 50 is contraction.

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*T
                     CEO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INDEX
               ---------------------------------------
                                      CEO Economic
                  Survey Date         Outlook Index
               =======================================
                    2007 Q4               79.5
               =======================================
                    2007 Q3               77.4
               =======================================
                    2007 Q2               81.9
               =======================================
                    2007 Q1               84.9
               =======================================
                    2006 Q4               81.9
               =======================================
                    2006 Q3               82.4
               =======================================

*T

   "While this quarter's index represents only a slight expansion, it
confirms the CEOs' belief in the underlying strength of the economy,
which has endured increased energy costs and credit concerns,"
concluded McGraw.

   The Roundtable's CEO Economic Outlook Survey, which has been
conducted quarterly since the fourth quarter of 2002, provides a
forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and outlooks of
Roundtable companies.

   The survey was completed between November 5th and November 20th by
105 of the Roundtable's 160 member companies. The percentages in some
categories may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Results of all
surveys can be found at www.businessroundtable.org/ceosurvey.

   Business Roundtable (www.businessroundtable.org) is an association
of chief executive officers of leading U.S. companies with $4.5
trillion in annual revenues and more than 10 million employees. Member
companies comprise nearly a third of the total value of the U.S. stock
markets and represent over 40 percent of all corporate income taxes
paid. Collectively, they returned $112 billion in dividends to
shareholders and the economy in 2005.

   Roundtable companies give more than $7 billion a year in combined
charitable contributions, representing nearly 60 percent of total
corporate giving. They are technology innovation leaders, with $90
billion in annual research and development spending - nearly half of
the total private R&D spending in the U.S.

Business Roundtable
Kirk Monroe, 202-496-3269
or
Joe Crea, 202-496-3288

Copyright Business Wire 2007

 

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