Fitch Downgrades First National Master Note Trust's Subordinated Notes Class B & D

Mon Jul 13, 2009 4:40pm EDT
 
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NEW YORK--(Business Wire)--
Fitch Ratings has downgraded First National Master Note Trust series 2008-2 and
2008-3 class B notes to 'A-' from 'A', and class D notes to 'BB' from 'BB+'.
Class C and class D notes will continue to be placed on Rating Watch Negative.
Subsequent to the above actions, the ratings for series 2008-2 and 2008-3 are as
follows: 

--First National Master Note Trust, series 2008-2 class B Notes: 'A-', Rating
Outlook Stable; 

--First National Master Note Trust, series 2008-2 class C Notes: 'BBB', Rating
Watch Negative; 

--First National Master Note Trust, series 2008-2 class D Notes: 'BB', Rating
Watch Negative; 

--First National Master Note Trust, series 2008-3 class B Notes: 'A-', Rating
Outlook Stable; 

--First National Master Note Trust, series 2008-3 class C Notes: 'BBB', Rating
Watch Negative; 

--First National Master Note Trust, series 2008-3 class D Notes: 'BB', Rating
Watch Negative. 

The rating actions are a result of deteriorating trust performance relative to
available credit enhancement for each class. There has been a significant
increase in delinquencies and charge-offs in the trusts, along with slowing
monthly payment rates (MPR) during the first half 2009. In particular, the four
most recent servicing reports show a rapid increase in charge-offs. On a gross
basis, charge-offs have risen from 6.34% at the beginning of the year to 9.43%
for the most recent reporting period. The percentage of accounts that are 60 or
more days delinquent has also risen during this period indicating that an
elevated level of chargeoffs will persist over the near term. 

MPR, a measure of how quickly consumers are paying off their debt, was at 12.86%
in May collection month compared to 14.87% for the same period a year ago. Given
that payment rates are generally inversely correlated to delinquency rates, a
rise in delinquencies could further slow the payment rate in the trusts. 

Excess spread, a measure of a trust's ability to generate profitability, has
experienced significant downward pressure in 2009. The series that Fitch rated,
2008-2 and 2008-3, experienced a decline of approximately 370 basis points (bps)
and 400 bps in excess spread during the last two collection months, due
primarily to higher charge-offs and lower yield. As a result, one month excess
spread levels range from 139 bps to 243 bps. The three month average excess
spread levels range from 319 bps to 403 bps. The spread account has an upfront
deposit of 50 bps and does not trap excess spread until the three month average
falls below 400 bps. The recent volatility in excess spread is not consistent
with the original assumption and Fitch is concerned that the class C and D notes
may not derive as much enhancement as originally anticipated from the excess
spread account. 

Fitch's analysis included a comparison of observed performance trends over the
past few months to Fitch's base case expectations for each outstanding rating
category. As part of its on-going surveillance efforts, Fitch will continue to
monitor the performance of these trusts. 

Fitch's rating definitions and the terms of use of such ratings are available on
the agency's public site, www.fitchratings.com. Published ratings, criteria and
methodologies are available from this site, at all times. Fitch's code of
conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance
and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the 'Code of
Conduct' section of this site. 





Fitch Ratings, New York
Tracy Wan, +1-212-908-9171
Cynthia Ullrich, +1-212-908-0609
Sandro Scenga, +1-212-908-0278 (Media Relations)
sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com

Copyright Business Wire 2009

 

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