The Conference Board(R) Japan Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX(TM) (LEI) FOR JAPAN AND RELATED
COMPOSITE ECONOMIC INDEXES FOR MAY 2009

NEW YORK, July 9 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(TM) (LEI) for Japan increased 0.8 percent and The Conference Board
Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in May.

-- The Conference Board LEI for Japan increased in May for the first time
since June 2007, and the strengths among its components were also more
widespread than the weaknesses this month. Substantial gains in the
six-month growth rate of productivity, the index of overtime worked,
stock prices, and money supply more than offset the large declines in
operating profits and the Tankan business conditions index. With
May's increase, the six-month change in the leading economic index
stands at -21.8 percent (about a -38.9 percent annual rate),which is
slightly less negative than it has been in recent months. The
weaknesses
among the leading indicators have also grown less widespread during
this
period.

-- The Conference Board CEI for Japan declined slightly in May, following
its first gain in a year in April. Large declines in the number of
employees and the retail, wholesale, and manufacturing sales component
offset the record monthly increase in industrial production this
month.
The six-month decline in the index has moderated in recent months --
to
7.1 percent (a -13.6 percent annual rate) for the period ending in
May,
but the weaknesses among its components have remained widespread. At
the
same time, real GDP contracted at a 14.2 percent annual rate in the
first quarter of 2009, the largest drop in 35 years, following a 13.5
percent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2008.

-- The rates of decline in The Conference Board LEI and The Conference
Board CEI for Japan, which became very sharp beginning in the third
quarter of 2008, seem to have moderated somewhat in recent months.
However, given the still deep and widespread declines in both indexes,
it is too early to tell whether Japan's economy is starting to
recover. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes
suggests that the current contraction in economic activity is likely
to
continue, but will probably become less severe in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Seven of the ten components that make up The Conference
Board LEI for Japan increased in May. The positive contributors to the index
-- in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- include
the six-month growth rate of labor productivity, the index of overtime worked,
stock prices, real money supply, the (inverted) business failures, interest
rate spread, and dwelling units started. The negative contributors -- in
order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest -- include real
operating profits*, the new orders for machinery and construction component*,
and the Tankan business conditions survey.

With the increase of 0.8 percent in May, The Conference Board LEI for Japan
now stands at 67.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased
3.1 percent in April and decreased 3.7 percent in March. During the six-month
span through May, the index decreased 21.8 percent, and four of the ten
components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the four components that make up The Conference
Board CEI for Japan decreased in May. The positive contributors to the index -
in order from the larger positive contributor to the smaller - include
industrial production and wage and salary income*. The retail, wholesale, and
manufacturing sales* component and number of employed persons declined in May.

With the decrease of 0.2 percent in May, The Conference Board CEI for Japan
now stands at 92.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased
0.4 percent in April and decreased 1.6 percent in March. During the six-month
span through May, the index decreased 7.1 percent, and one of the four
components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY AND NOTES. The data series used to compute The Conference
Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Japan and The Conference Board
Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) for Japan reported in this release are
those available "as of" 10:00 A.M. ETJuly 8, 2009. Some series are estimated
as noted below.

* The series in The Conference Board LEI that are based on our estimates are
real operating profits and new orders for machinery. The series in The
Conference Board CEI that is based on our estimates is real manufacturing
sales.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

2008 2009 6-month
Mar Apr May Nov to May

Leading Economic index (LEI) 68.6 p 66.5 p 67.0 p
Percent Change -3.7 p -3.1 p 0.8 p -21.8 p
Diffusion 50.0 60.0 70.0 40.0

Coincident Economic Index (CEI) 91.8 p 92.2 p 92.0 p
Percent Change -1.6 p 0.4 p -0.2 p -7.1 p
Diffusion 25.0 25.0 50.0 25.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

The next release is scheduled for Friday, August 7, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. (JST)
In the U.S. -Thursday, August 6, 2009 at 9:00 P.M (ET)

SOURCE The Conference Board

Media, Frank Tortorici, +1-212-339-0231, or Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232, or
Indicator Program, +1-212-339-0330, indicators@conference-board.org, all of
The Conference Board