The Taiwan Commercial Banking Report Provides Independent Forecasts and Competitive...

Wed May 28, 2008 9:00pm EDT

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The Taiwan Commercial Banking Report Provides Independent Forecasts and Competitive Intelligence on Taiwan's Commercial Banking Industry

DUBLIN, Ireland--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c93035) has announced the
addition of Taiwan Commercial Banking Report Q2 2008 to their
offering.

In March 2008, we updated all data for the 59 countries surveyed
with official figures, sourced from central banks and regulators. In
most cases, we were able to find data that pertained to the end of
2007: in almost all other cases, the data pertains to September 30
2007. As a result, the insights that we derive on particular countries
are based on consistently sourced information that is far more current
than it had been previously.

Although we gather data for countries such as the US, Japan,
Australia and the eurozone, the vast majority of the 59 countries
whose banking industries we survey are, or are generally seen as
being, emerging markets. For all the widely publicised problems of
large banks in developed countries, in the wake of the subprime
banking crisis in the US, 2007 was an extremely good year for the
banking sectors of the emerging markets. In local currency terms, the
median growth in assets was 21% (in Brazil). The median rates of
growth in loans to non-bank customers and in deposits were 22% (in
India) and 18% (in Morocco). In some countries - and not just those
enjoying oil booms - the figures were spectacular. In Ukraine, for
instance, assets and deposits rose by 76% and 62% respectively. Loans
grew by more than one-third in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Peru, Bahrain, Iran and Nigeria.
Deposits also rose by more than one-third in most of these countries.

In absolute terms, Taiwan's banking sector enjoyed reasonable
growth through the year to September 30 2007. In local currency terms,
total assets, total loans and total deposits increased by 1%, 5% and
4% respectively. The loan/deposit and loan/asset ratios rose and the
loan/GDP ratio fell.

Relative to other countries surveyed by BMI, Taiwan experienced
extremely limited growth. Of the 59 countries surveyed Taiwan ranks
57th in terms of local currency asset growth, 56th in terms of local
currency loan growth and 56th in terms of local currency deposit
growth. As the tables above show, Taiwan's rankings in terms of its
loan/deposit, loan/asset and loan/GDP ratios are considerably higher,
at 33rd, 20th and fourth respectively. In a country with per capita
GDP of US$16,840, deposits per capita are a relatively high US$27,922.

In Q108, we envisaged that total assets, total loans and total
deposits would each rise by 5% annually through the 2007-2012 forecast
period. Now, and using an improved forecasting method, we are looking
for growth rates of 5%, 6% and 6% respectively.

Since Q108, we have calculated, on a consistent basis, a
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the 59
countries surveyed. The CBBER includes an assessment of the limits of
potential returns: it does this by taking into account the size,
growth potential and bancassurance potential of the banking sector, as
well as aspects of the economy in 2007. The CBBER also depends on an
assessment of the risks to the realisation of potential returns: this
reflects BMI's assessments of overall country risk, together with the
regulatory and competitive environment.

Taiwan's CBBER is 70.8. In the context of the Asia Pacific region,
this means it is a moderately attractive country. The major problems
relate to the country elements of the limits of potential returns,
particularly GDP volatility. The ratings score for the market
structure - the most important component of the assessment of the
limits to potential returns - is a much more healthy 73.8. Taiwan
possesses a relatively well-developed banking sector but it does
suffer from low growth.

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Executive Summary
Table: Levels (TWDbn)
Table: Levels (US$bn)
Table: Levels At December 31 2007
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q208
Table: Projected Levels (TWDbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
Key Issues
Changes To The Commercial Banking Forecast
Commercial Banking SWOT
Taiwan Commercial Banking SWOT
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
Table: Taiwan's Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
International Context
Lending Trends And External Accounts
Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts, End-2007
Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts (% of GDP)
Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits
(US$bn)
Per-Capita Deposits
Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2007
Macroeconomic Trends And Developments
Table: Taiwan Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Sce
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)
Table: Projected Levels (TWDbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
Comment On Developments In 2007
Comment On Forecasts
Comment On Trends And Ratios
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
Latin America, Late 2007
Banks' Bond Portfolios
Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2007
Competitive Landscape And Protagonists
Methodology
Basis Of Projections
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And
Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c93035

Research and Markets
Laura Wood, press@researchandmarkets.com
fax: +353 1 4100 980