The Conference Board(R) Korea Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

Korea Leading Economic Indicators and Related Composite Indexes for March 2008

NEW YORK, May 8 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board announced today that
the leading index for Korea declined 0.2 percent, while the coincident index
increased 0.2 percent in March.
-- The leading index declined again in March following a sharp drop in
February. The weaknesses among the leading indicators continued to be
widespread this month, with five of the seven components in the leading
index making negative contributions. Among them, the private
construction orders component made the largest negative contribution.
With March's decrease, the six-month change in the leading index has
dropped down to a -0.3 percent rate (a -0.6 percent annual rate)
between September 2007 to March 2008, well below the rapid growth rate
of 5.1 percent (about a 10.5 percent annual rate) reached between April
to October 2007.

-- The coincident index increased slightly again in March, and the
strengths among the coincident indicators have been widespread in
recent months. Despite this gain, the six-month growth rate for this
index of current economic activities continued to slow, to 1.0 percent
(a 2.0 percent annual rate) from September 2007 to March 2008, down
from the most recent peak growth of 2.6 percent (about a 5.3 percent
annual rate) in July 2007.

-- The leading index has been on a downward trend since its most recent
peak in October 2007, as a result of widespread weakness among its
components. At the same time, real GDP grew at a 2.9 percent annual
rate in the first quarter of 2008, well below the 6.2 percent average
annual rate in the second half of 2007. The recent behavior of both
the leading and coincident indexes so far suggests that slow to more
moderate economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the seven components that make up the leading
index increased in March. The positive contributors - from the larger positive
contributor to the smaller -- were the (inverted) index of inventories to
shipments and letter of credit arrivals. Negative contributors - from the
largest negative contributor to the smallest -- were private construction
orders, real exports FOB, the (inverted) yield of government public bonds,
value of machinery orders, and stock prices.
With the 0.2 percent decrease in March, the leading index now stands at
176.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 1.3 percent in
February and increased 0.5 percent in January. During the six-month span
through March, the leading index decreased 0.3 percent, with three of the
seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 42.9
percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up the
coincident index increased in March. The positive contributors to the leading
index -- in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest --
were the wholesale and retail sales component, industrial production, and
monthly cash earnings. Total employment declined in March.
With the 0.2 percent increase in March, the coincident index now stands at
171.4 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in
February and increased 0.1 percent in January. During the six-month span
through March, the coincident index increased 1.0 percent, with three of the
four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5
percent).
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Summary Table of Composite Indexes
2008 6-month
Jan Feb Mar Sep to Mar

Leading index 179.0 r 176.6 r 176.2
Percent Change 0.5 -1.3 -0.2 -0.3
Diffusion 42.9 28.6 28.6 42.9

Coincident Index 170.7 r 171.0 r 171.4 p
Percent Change 0.1 r 0.2 r 0.2 p 1.0 p
Diffusion 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 1990
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The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, June 10, 2008 at 9:00 P.M (ET)
In Korea - Wednesday, June 11 2008 at 10:00 A.M. (KOR)

SOURCE The Conference Board

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