Research and Markets: Oman Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009 - Oman's Real GDP Growth is Now Forecast at 0.4% in 2009, Down from 13.0% in 2008

DUBLIN--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/1087c0/oman_oil_and_gas_r) has
announced the addition of the "Oman Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009" report to their
offering.

The Oman Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists,
corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and
regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on
Oman's oil and gas industry.

The latest Oman Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will
account for just 0.64% of Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2013, while
providing 2.57% of supply. Regional oil use of 8.24mn barrels per day (b/d) in
2001 rose to 11.25mn b/d in 2008. It should average 11.30mn b/d in 2009 and then
rise to around 12.17mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 22.87mn b/d in
2001, and in 2008 averaged 26.29mn b/d. It is set to rise to 28.01mn b/d by
2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the
pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.63mn
b/d. This total had risen to 15.04mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach
15.84mn b/d by 2013. Iraq has the greatest production growth potential, followed
by Qatar.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 391.5bn cubic metres (bcm),
with demand of 512.8bcm targeted for 2013, representing 31.0% growth. Production
of 389.5bcm in 2008 should reach 610.4bcm in 2013 (+56.7%), which implies net
exports rising to 98bcm by the end of the period. In 2008, Oman consumed 3.22%
of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 3.21% by 2013. It
contributed 6.19% to 2008 regional gas production, and by 2013 will account for
5.73% of supply. For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket
price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This
represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we have stuck with during the past
three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and
Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For
2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from
our previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and
to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and we are
continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018. In
2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with
the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices
is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of
US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear
outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level
for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in
2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9%
from the previous year's level.

Oman's real GDP growth is now forecast at 0.4% in 2009, down from 13.0% in 2008.
We are assuming 2.5% growth in 2010, 3.3% in 2011, followed by 3.4% in 2012 and
2.3% in 2013. We expect oil demand to rise from 63,000b/d in 2008 to 78,000b/d
in 2013. Partly state-owned Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) accounts for more
than 90% of the oil and gas produced in the country, but relies on international
oil companies (IOCs) to maintain volumes. Our estimates assume 760,000b/d of
2009 oil and liquids production, with output peaking at 770,000b/d in 2010,
before volumes sink to 720,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas
production should reach 35.0bcm by 2013, up from 24.1bcm in 2008. Consumption is
expected to rise from 12.6bcm to 16.5bcm by the end of the forecast period,
allowing exports of 18.5bcm.

Key Topics Covered:

* Executive Summary
* SWOT Analysis
* Oman Energy Market Overview
* Regional Energy Market Overview
* Oil Supply And Demand
* Business Environment Ranking
* Middle East Region
* Industry Forecast Scenario
* Oil And Gas Reserves
* Macroeconomic Outlook
* Competitive Landscape
* Executive Summary
* Company Monitor
* Petroleum Development Oman (PDO)
* Glossary of Terms
* Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology

Companies Mentioned:

* BP
* CNPC/Sinopec
* EnCana/Denerco
* MOL
* Occidental
* Oilex
* Oman Oil Company (OOC)
* Petrogas
* Petroleum Development Oman (PDO)
* PTTEP
* RAK Petroleum
* Shell Oman Marketing Company
* Total

For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/1087c0/oman_oil_and_gas_r

Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager,
press@researchandmarkets.com
U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907
Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716

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