The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Spain and Related Composite...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Spain and Related
Composite Indexes for May 2009
The Conference Board(R)

BRUSSELS, Belgium, July 13 /PRNewswire/ --The Conference Board Leading
Economic Index(TM)()(LEI) for Spaindeclined0.1 percent. The Conference Board
Coincident Economic Index(TM)()(CEI) decreased0.5 percent in May.

-- The Conference Board LEI for Spain decreased in May after increasing
for
the first time in eight months in April. A large negative
contribution
from the capital equipment component of industrial production more
than
offset positive contributions from order books survey and stock
prices.
Between November 2008 and May 2009, the leading economic index
decreased
by 2.3 percent (about a -4.6 percent annual rate), only slightly
faster
than the 2.2 percent decline (about a -4.3 percent annual rate)
between
May and November 2008. In addition, the strengths and weaknesses
among
the leading indicators have become balanced in recent months.
-- The Conference Board CEI for Spain, a measure of current economic
activity, decreased again in May. Industrial production (excluding
construction) continued to make the largest negative contribution to
the
index. Between November 2008 and May 2009, the coincident economic
index fell 4.2 percent (about a -8.1 percent annual rate), moderately
slower than the 4.6 percent decline (about a -9.0 percent annual rate)
for the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the
coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with none of the
components increasing during the past six months. At the same time,
real GDP contracted at a 7.4 percent annual rate during the first
quarter of 2009, its largest quarterly decline since 1991, following a
decline of 3.8 percent annual rate for the fourth quarter of 2008.

-- After trending downward for more than a year, The Conference Board LEI
for Spain has been almost flat during the past two months and as a
result, the pace of its six-month contraction has slowed recently.
Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Spain has been falling since
its
most recent peak in February 2008, though the rate of its decline has
moderated slightly over the past few months. Taken together, the
recent
behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that, although the
pace of contraction may moderate slightly, the downturn in economic
activity is likely to continue in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up The Conference
Board LEI for Spain increased in May. The positive contributors -- in order
from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are order books
survey, the Spanish equity price index, and the Spanish contribution to Euro
M2. The negative contributors -- in order from the largest negative
contributor to the smallest -- are the capital equipment component of
industrial production and the inverted long-term government bond yield. Job
placings remained unchanged.

With the decrease of 0.1percent in May, The Conference Board LEI for Spain now
stands at 105.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2
percent in April and declined 0.6 percent in March. During the six-month span
through May, the index decreased 2.3 percent, and three of the six components
advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the five components that make up The Conference
Board CEI for Spain increased in May. Real imports was the only positive
contributor to the index this month. Industrial production excluding
construction, final household consumption, retail sales survey and employment
declined in May.

With the decrease of 0.5 percent in May, The Conference Board CEI for Spain
now stands at 101.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased
0.5 percent in April and decreased 0.8 percent in March. During the six-month
span through May, the index decreased 4.2 percent, and none of the five
components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes

2009 6-month
Mar Apr May Nov to May
Leading Economic Index (LEI) 105.7 r 105.9 r 105.8 p
Percent Change -0.6 0.2 -0.1 p -2.3 p
Diffusion 66.7 66.7 58.3 50.0

Coincident Economic Index
(CEI) 102.6 p 102.1 p 101.6 p
Percent Change -0.8 p -0.5 p -0.5 p -4.2 p
Diffusion 0.0 40.0 20.0 0.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 10:00 A.M.
(Madrid Time)
In the U.S. - Tuesday, August 11, 2009 at 4:00 A.M. (ET)

SOURCE The Conference Board

The Conference Board Europe, + 32 2 675 5405, indicators@conference-board.org