Research and Markets: Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009 Forecasts that the Country will Account for 0.41% of African Regional Oil Demand by 2013

DUBLIN--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/5383dd/gabon_oil_and_gas) has
announced the addition of the "Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009" report to their
offering.

This Gabon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists,
corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and
regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on
Gabon's oil and gas industry.

The new Gabon Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 0.41%
of African regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 2.08% of supply. African
regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 3.60mn b/d in
2008. It should average 3.58mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 3.96mn b/d by
2013. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged
10.20mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.98mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing
steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In
2001, the region was exporting an average 4.86mn b/d. This total had risen to
6.60mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.02mn b/d by 2013. Angola has the
greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to soar if it
can resolve recent quasipolitical issues.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 115bn cubic metres (bcm),
with demand of 181bcm targeted for 2013. Production of 211bcm in 2008 should
reach 354bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 96bcm in 2008 to
173bcm by the end of the period. Gabon is neither a significant regional
producer nor consumer of gas.

For 2009 as a whole, the publisher is now assuming an average OPEC basket price
of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This
represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast they have stuck with during the
past three quarters. Their OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI,
Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl
respectively. For 2010, they expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the
OPEC price (up from their previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to
US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Their post-2010 forecasts are
unchanged and they are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of
US$70.00 for 2013-2018.

In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl,
with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline
prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of
US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear
outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level
for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in
2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9%
from the previous year's level.

Gabonese real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 0.2% for 2009, down from 4.2%
in 2008. The publisher is assuming 2.9% growth in 2010 and 3.8% in 2011,
followed by 3.5% in 2012 and 3.0% in 2013. They expect oil demand to rise from
an estimated 13,200b/d in 2008 to 16,200b/d in 2013. State oil company Société
Nationale Petrolière Gabonaise (SNPG) operates in partnership with various
international oil companies (IOCs). Combined oil and gas liquids output is
forecast to decrease from 235,000b/d in 2008 to 250,000b/d in 2013. Gas
production should reach 1bcm by 2013, up from an estimated 0.1bcm in 2008.
Consumption is expected to follow the production trend, with no need for imports
but no surplus gas to export.

Between 2008 and 2018, the publisher is forecasting a decrease in Gabon oil and
gas liquids production of 3.95%, with volumes peaking at 265,000b/d in 2010,
before falling steadily to 226,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast
period. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 56.00%, with
growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and
the country using 21,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise to 1bcm
by the end of the period. With demand rising by 900% between 2008 and 2018,
there should be a balanced market, with no need for imports or scope for
exports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this
report.

Gabon now occupies equal second place in BMI's updated Upstream Business
Environment rating, alongside Nigeria and Republic of Congo (RoC). In spite of
being just three points behind Libya, it is no position to move higher over the
medium term. The county's score benefits from healthy gas output growth
prospects, a particularly high gas reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and
attractive licensing terms. The country's risk environment is fragile, but this
is hardly uncommon in the African region. Angola should be able to overtake
Gabon during the next few quarters. The country is near the bottom of the league
table in BMI's updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with no high
scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely unless the energy market
grows rapidly or new refineries are built. It is ranked ninth ahead only of
Equatorial Guinea thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas
demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and population.

Key Topics Covered:

* Executive Summary
* Gabon Energy Market Overview
* Oil Supply And Demand
* Business Environment Ranking
* Business Environment
* Competitive Landscape
* Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
* Regional Oil Demand
* BMI Forecast Modelling

Companies Mentioned:

* Addax Petroleum
* Total Gabon
* Shell Gabon
* Marathon Oil
* Maurel & Prom
* Vaalco Energy
* Perenco

For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/5383dd/gabon_oil_and_gas

Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager
press@researchandmarkets.com
U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907
Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716

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