RPT-SCENARIOS-What happens if Opel doesn't get funding

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FRANKFURT, March 6 (Reuters) - Stricken U.S. automaker General Motors Corp GM.N is seeking 3.3 billion euros ($4.2 billion) in aid from European governments to help its European business, which includes Germany's Opel and UK-based Vauxhall, to bridge a funding gap.

GM would provide another 3 billion euros worth of in-kind contributions to Opel and is seeking $1.2 billion in labour savings to prevent plant closures and thousands of job cuts.

But German interior minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a newspaper interview on Friday that insolvency could be an option for Opel.[ID:nL6111422]

Swedish brand Saab has already sought protection from creditors after GM said it wanted out and a similar move for Opel, which GM bought 80 years ago, would have serious repercussions for Opel staff, suppliers, dealers, customers and local communities.

STAFF

The IG Metall labour union says up to 400,000 jobs are at risk in Germany if Opel goes out of business. It counts not just staff that the German-based carmaker employs directly, but also suppliers, dealers and others whose livelihood depends on the company.

GM Europe employed 55,500 people at the end of 2007 and has profuction sites in various countries including Germany, Belgium Spain, Poland, Britain and Sweden. [ID:nLQ858481]

GM officials said at this week's Geneva Motor Show that workers would need to take "significant" pay cuts to stave off the closure of three European plants, without specifying the particular plants at risk.

GM Europe's president, Carl-Peter Forster, said that "in terms of straightforward operations by far the best solution is to just close the plants," but he added that GM would seek to cut labour costs by $1.2 billion via wage concessions, working hour cuts and voluntary departures. [ID:L3897676]

DEALERS

Around 1,600 dealers and service partners in Germany depend on Opel, according to the ZDK car dealers association. "That would affect 30,000 employees in Germany," a ZDK spokesman said.

CUSTOMERS

People who bought Opels are covered by guarantees from their dealers regardless of whether or not Opel is still around. Spare parts should also remain widely available unless independent suppliers too are dragged down by Opel's woes, said Paul Schaefer, a member of the executive committee at Opel dealers association VDOH.

SUPPLIERS

Suppliers that depend almost exclusively on Opel for contracts will find it hard to survive if Opel vanishes. Exact numbers are unavailable but there are around 1,600 suppliers in Opel's home state of Hesse alone, according to the state economy ministry.

RIVALS

Other manufacturers would benefit should Opel stop production. "Every car that Opel does not sell gets sold by someone else," said Wolfgang Meinig, head of the automotive industry research centre in Bamberg.

Opel had a German market share of 8.4 percent in 2008 and had 7.8 percent of the European market.

The head of Ford (F.N) in Germany has called for a rescue of Opel to avoid dealing a devastating blow to suppliers. Volkswagen's (VOWG.DE) CEO has spoken out against state aid.

REGIONS

Opel employs around 25,000 people in Germany, mostly at its headquarters in Ruesselsheim by Frankfurt and in the industrialised Ruhr Valley city of Bochum.

The prime ministers of Hesse and North Rhine-Westphalia states have led the campaign to save Opel with Hesse already laying the groundwork for a 500 million-euro guarantee fund for Opel and its suppliers.

Meanwhile Belgium's regional government of Flanders, which hosts an Opel plant in Antwerp that employs about 2,700 people and produced some 133,000 Astras in 2008, says it is still studying the GM/Opel plan.

Flanders has said it might grant up to 300 million euros in loan guarantees for Opel, provided Opel Antwerp remains open and part of the future of GM in Europe and is also looking at other possibilities including becoming a shareholder in GM Europe.

VAUXHALL MOTORS

GM's UK division which has 5,000 strong workforce got 8 million pounds from the government for its Ellesmere Port site in northwest England two years ago to ensure it won the right to build the new generation Vauxhall Astra, which is scheduled to be launched later this year.

Earlier this week GM UK said its plants at Ellesmere Port and Luton, north of London "are very lean and efficient plants" and comments made by GM about possible plant closures "were in response to General Motors Europe's request for financial support from a number of European governments. This was specified in the GM viability plan handed to the German government and does not just relate to the UK." (Reporting by Angelika Gruber and Jan Schwartz; Additional Reporting by John Bowker, Christiaan Hetzner and David Bailey; Writing by Mike Shields; Editing by Greg Mahlich)