BUY OR SELL-Smooth seas for Royal Caribbean?

Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:03pm EST
 
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* 15 analysts rate the stock a "buy"

* Firming of pricing bodes well for earnings - analyst

* Long-term problems remain, could pressure shares

By Deepa Seetharaman

WASHINGTON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - After a nine-month surge, can Royal Caribbean's stock keep cruising?

Shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL.N)(RCL.OL) have more than tripled since early March, spurred by an upswing in the broader market and signs that ticket prices are starting to stabilize.

While Royal Caribbean executives said last week that there was still little evidence of an economic rebound in its business, they do not see a need to discount prices to the levels seen earlier this year. [ID:nN02460627]

The world's No. 2 cruise operator expects to post a loss for the fourth quarter -- missing Wall Street expectations for a profitable quarter, but reiterated its outlook for positive net revenue yields in 2010.

FULL STEAM AHEAD

Of the 24 analysts who cover Royal Caribbean, 15 rate the stock the equivalent of a "buy" or a "strong buy," according to StarMine data. That figure has grown in the past 90 days, reflecting growing bullish sentiment about the stock.

"We're starting to see the initial signs of pricing firming," said William Blair & Company analyst Sharon Zackfia, who has an "outperform" rating on the stock. This is the first step to improved earnings, she said.

Zackfia noted that the cruise operator is also positioned to benefit from a rebound in spending from wealthier consumers, which the company caters to through two of its cruise lines: Royal Caribbean and Celebrity.

"What's very apparent in our coverage is that the upper middle-class consumer has started to rebound pretty markedly," Zackfia said.

Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Robert LaFleur said in a research note last week that he forecasts the company will double its earnings per share in 2010.

ROUGH SEAS

But while shares have surged in recent months, short interest has also risen, suggesting that some investors are banking on a drop in the stock price.  Continued...

 

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UPDATE 5-Royal Caribbean sees Q4 loss; shares slump
Tuesday, 3 Nov 2009 06:24pm EST