UPDATE 2-Ford sees market share gains, increases production

* Ford sales seen down 10-20 pct in June vs year ago

* Industry sales seen down 25-30 pct in month -- analyst

* U.S. June auto sales at 10 mln unit annual rate possible

* Ford increasing Q3 North America production by 5.4 pct

* Ford shares rise 3 percent (Recasts first paragraph, adds Ford increasing North American production)

By David Bailey

DEARBORN, Mich., June 29 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co (F.N) said on Monday it expects to gain U.S. market share in June as its sales would hold up much better than the rest of the industry and signaled its increasing confidence by raising production.

Ford said it would increase North American production in the third quarter by about 5.4 percent from a plan disclosed in early June amid signs that demand has begun to stabilize.

That plan had set Ford's first year-over-year quarterly production increase in North American in two years.

"The underlying economic indicators, meaning fewer jobless claims, another month of somewhat higher levels of consumer confidence, suggest to us that the worst is behind us in terms of not only the economy ... but also that we may have seen the low point of auto sales," Ford U.S. sales analyst George Pipas told reporters in a discussion at Ford headquarters.

Ford expects its U.S. sales to be down 10 percent to 20 percent in June from a year earlier, while the industry overall could post declines of 25 percent to 30 percent, Pipas said.

Pipas said the U.S. could see economic growth in the second half of 2009 and higher levels of auto sales than the light vehicle sales rates we have been seeing.

"We think it is a good bet now that is going to happen," Pipas said.

Ford, the only U.S. automaker to have avoided bankruptcy, has forecast a second-half U.S. recovery in demand. Ford posted a company record $14.7 billion net loss in 2008 and expects to return to profitability in 2011.

The U.S. auto industry could post sales declines of 25 percent to 30 percent in June from a year earlier, the smallest percentage decline since September 2008 when the U.S. sustained a financial market meltdown, Pipas said.

With Ford sales expected to decline by 10 percent to 20 percent, the company expects its share of the U.S. market in June to be comparable to May, when it posted its best overall share in three years and up from a year ago.