Some in OPEC see $60 a barrel oil in 2009

Wed Mar 18, 2009 12:37pm EDT
 
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* Libya, Algeria see oil rising to $60 by year-end

* Some analysts say OPEC curbs in place will trim oil stocks

* Price also depends on success of economic stimulus efforts

By Alex Lawler and Barbara Lewis

LONDON/VIENNA, March 18 (Reuters) - Some members of OPEC have limited their oil price ambitions in 2009 due to the fragility of the world economy, despite OPEC's belief that higher prices are needed to support investment in new supplies.

Algeria and Libya, both members of OPEC, said they expected oil to reach $60 a barrel by the end of the year from near $48 now -- much less than the $75 that leading OPEC producer Saudi Arabia and others consider a reasonable price.

The producer group agreed on Sunday to leave output targets unchanged and enforce supply curbs more strictly. The move comes amid some evidence that output cuts so far are starting to remove excess oil from the market.

Libya's top OPEC official said he expected demand and prices to rise this year, potentially avoiding the need for further supply restraint by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at its next meeting on May 28.

"I think it will be around $60 by the end of the year," Libya's Shokri Ghanem told Reuters financial television on Wednesday during an OPEC seminar in Vienna, where OPEC met on Sunday.

Algeria's Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil made a similar price prediction to Ghanem's on Tuesday.

OPEC's supply restraint since September has helped to pull prices up from a low of $32.40 in December. Even so, analysts say the grim economic outlook and weak stock markets are keeping a lid on the rally.

An official from Iraq, whose economy is suffering due to oil's $100 collapse from a record near $150 last year, said the price could rise as high as $60 in the fourth quarter but the economy was the sticking point.

"The problem is that there is so much economic uncertainty out there," Iraq's OPEC governor Falah Alamri told Reuters on Monday. "We don't know how much worse it is going to get, at least for the next few months."

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