Gold at $1,050-1,100/oz likely in 2010 -JPMorgan

Fri Oct 9, 2009 8:41am EDT
 
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 * Further gains seen in gold after this week's record highs
 * Silver forecast for 2010 lifted nearly 18 percent
 * Base metals forecasts also raised
 
 LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - JPMorgan (JPM.N) lifted its 2009
price forecasts for gold and silver on Friday and said new
record highs for gold at $1,050-1,100 were likely in early 2010.
 In a research note, the bank said it has revised its 2009
price view for gold XAU= up to $948 an ounce from $939 an
ounce predicted in July. It said it now sees silver XAG= at
$14.30 an ounce, against a previous forecast of $13.90.
 For next year, it lifted its gold and silver forecasts to
$1,006 an ounce from $950 and $15.80 an ounce from $13.40
respectively -- a rise of nearly 18 percent in silver's case.
 "Overall we are looking for gold to average around $1,000 an
ounce in the fourth quarter... but new highs between $1,050 and
$1,100 look likely for early 2010," it said.
 The bank said, however, that investors may currently be
paying too high a price for gold as an inflation hedge.
 "We do remain concerned that gold as an 'inflation trade' is
both expensive and premature," it said. "But the flows speak for
themselves, as gold has been the overwhelming beneficiary of
investment allocations to commodities all year."
 Spot gold hit record highs on three successive sessions this
week, peaking at $1,061.20 an ounce on Thursday. At 1012 GMT on
Friday it was at $1,048.10 an ounce.
 The bank also lifted its forecasts for base metals copper,
aluminium, nickel, zinc and lead for 2009 and 2010, though it
said it expects 2010 to be "a year of consolidation in the base
metals, as opposed to a year of new highs or lows in price".
  JPMorgan said it now sees copper averaging $4,998 a tonne
this year, up from a previous forecast of $4,775, and raised its
price view for aluminium to $1,647 a tonne in 2009 from $1,608.
 Next year it sees copper at $5,950, against a former view of
$5,563, and aluminium at $1,844, up from $1,775.
 "All of the base metals markets are in surpluses, not just
in 2009 but also in 2010," JPMorgan said.
 "While the expected restocking activity will deliver a
significant fillip to prices and allow a solid Q1 price recovery
relative to an expected soggy Q4 performance, we are not
confident that rallies can be sustained."
 Lead saw the largest percentage rise in forecast, however.
The bank lifted its 2009 price forecast for the battery material
by 10.7 percent to $1,658 a tonne, and its 2010 price view by
22.1 percent to $1,863 a tonne.
 
          JPMORGAN CALENDAR AVERAGE FORECASTS
                      2009           2010          2011
COPPER ($/tonne) MCU3
New                     4,998          5,950         5,750
Old                     4,775          5,563         5,750
ALUMINIUM ($/tonne)MAL3
New                     1,647          1,844         1,900
Old                     1,608          1,775         1,800
NICKEL ($/tonne) MNI3
New                    15,567         17,125         16,000
Old                    15,556         15,750         15,000
ZINC ($/tonne) MZN3
New                     1,586          1,894          1,850
Old                     1,517          1,713          1,750
LEAD ($/tonne) MPB3
New                     1,658          1,863          1,700
Old                     1,498          1,525          1,650
GOLD ($/oz)
New                       948          1,006          1,000
Old                       939            950            900
SILVER ($/oz)
New                     14.30          15.80          15.40
Old                     13.90          13.40          10.50
PLATINUM ($/oz) XPT=  1,183          1,338          1,469
PALLADIUM ($/oz)XPD=    250            306            425
 
 (Reporting by Jan Harvey; Editing by Anthony Barker)

 

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