Investec cuts platinum forecast on soft demand outlook

LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - South African investment bank and asset manager Investec (INVP.L) cut its 2009 and 2010 price forecasts for platinum, palladium and rhodium, citing a downturn in demand from industrial users such as carmakers.

"The platinum price has rallied in the last few weeks, but a weak rhodium price and strengthening rand mean the platinum group metal basket price remains low and a number of mines are still losing money," said Investec analyst Rebecca O'Dwyer in a research note.

"We see downside risk to the platinum price in the near-term, particularly if vehicle sales continue to decline in the first few months of 2009."

The bank said it now sees platinum prices at $970 an ounce in 2009 and $1,350 an ounce in 2010, down from previous forecasts of $1,350 and $1,675 an ounce respectively.

It expects palladium prices of $220 an ounce in 2009, down from a previous forecast of $318, and sees the metal at $250 in 2010, against $350 previously.

Investec also slashed its rhodium price estimate for 2009 to $1,350 an ounce from $5,625, and for 2010 to $2,250 from $6,425.

However, the bank left its long-term forecasts for platinum and palladium unchanged at $1,300 and $350 an ounce respectively.

The bank said this reflected its view that while 2009 will be "a difficult year for vehicle sales,... on a longer term perspective, the fundamentals for platinum group metals demand remain very attractive."

Spot platinum XPT= was quoted at $988/993 an ounce at 1131 GMT, against $990.50 late in New York on Thursday. Palladium XPD= was at $193.50/198.50 an ounce from $194.50. (Reporting by Jan Harvey; Editing by James Jukwey)