UPDATE 3-Cadbury CEO says past deals beat Kraft offer-note

Wed Sep 23, 2009 8:33am EDT
 
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* Stitzer says past deals in mid-teens EBITDA multiple

* Doesn't expect Kraft to walk away from deal

* Sees some strategic sense to Kraft-Cadbury

* Sees revenue synergies from deal

(Adds detail from clarification note issued by BofA/Merrill Lynch sales specialist Simon Archer)

By Raji Menon

LONDON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Cadbury (CBRY.L) Chief Executive Todd Stitzer noted that past deals in the industry have been agreed at higher multiples than that implied by the offer from Kraft (KFT.N), according to a Bank of America/Merrill Lynch note obtained by Reuters.

The note was published by sales specialist Simon Archer and based on Stitzer's remarks at a closed investor conference in London.

As originally published, the note said: "On price, Todd seemed to admit that a 15x EBITDA multiple would be a fair price."

But Archer has since issued a clarification saying Stitzer's comments "were only in the context of comparable transactions being in the mid-teens - he was not implying a fair value for the business".

Stitzer's exact remarks were not immediately available either from Archer or Cadbury.

The sales specialist noted specific prior transactions highlighted at the conference were the previously attempted Wrigley/Hershey deal which was proposed at 15-16 times EBITDA, and Kraft's circa 13.7 times purchase of Danone's biscuit business "which some might argue is lower growth".

A deal multiple of above 17x EBITDA such as last year's Mars/Wrigley merger was cited as an "outlier".

The offer from Kraft that has been rejected by Cadbury is estimated by Credit Suisse as around 12.5 times 2009 EBITDA.

According to the note Stitzer also told investors that he does not expect Kraft to walk away from its proposed acquisition of Cadbury, that he sees some strategic sense in combining the two companies, and gave examples of revenue synergies from such a deal.

Credit Suisse analysts say a multiple in the mid-teens would put the price for Cadbury around 900 pence per share, valuing the entire company at 12.2 billion pounds ($20.4 billion), up from Kraft's initial bid of 745 pence per share, or 10.2 billion pounds.  Continued...

 

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